2024 United States presidential election in Texas
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Texas voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas has 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.[1]
As the second most populous state, Texas is generally considered to be a red state, not having voted Democratic in a presidential election since fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter won it in 1976 and with Republicans holding all statewide offices since 1999. Texas' location in the American South and largely in the greater Bible Belt has given the GOP the upper hand in the state in recent decades.
However, Texas is considered by some to be a potential swing state, as the state has not backed a Republican for President by double digits since it favored Mitt Romney in 2012, which can be largely credited to the fast-growing Texas Triangle trending leftwards in some recent elections, especially in the closely-contested 2018 U.S. Senate race and the 2020 U.S. presidential election which both saw the Metroplex county of Tarrant and the Greater Austin counties of Williamson and Hays flip blue. However, in the 2020 elections, predominately-Latino South Texas shifted significantly rightward, a trend that the rest of the state followed in the 2022 midterms.[2][3] Thus, Texas is favored to remain in the GOP column in 2024.[4]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[5]
Primary elections[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
The Texas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent president Joe Biden won the state in a landslide, with minor opposition from various other candidates, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley region. Biden lost Loving County, in which there was only one ballot cast for Frankie Lozada, marking one of two counties he would lose in the greater Democratic primaries, the other being Cimarron County in Oklahoma on the same day.
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
- 100%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 831,247 | 84.6% | 244 | 244 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 43,667 | 4.5% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 27,473 | 2.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 26,473 | 2.7% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 17,196 | 1.8% | |||
| Cenk Uygur | 16,100 | 1.6% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 11,311 | 1.2% | |||
| Star Locke | 8,602 | 0.9% | |||
| Total: | 982,069 | 100% | 272 | 272 | |
| Source: [6] | |||||
Republican primary[edit]
The Texas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump easily won the state and all of its delegates against Nikki Haley, who remained his only major opposition. Trump received the endorsements of U.S. senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as Texas governor Greg Abbott, in his primary campaign.
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,808,269 | 77.84% | 161 | 161 | |
| Nikki Haley | 405,472 | 17.45% | |||
| Uncommitted | 45,568 | 1.96% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 36,302 | 1.56% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 10,582 | 0.46% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8,938 | 0.38% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 2,964 | 0.13% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2,585 | 0.11% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 2,339 | 0.10% | |||
| Total: | 2,323,019 | 100.00% | 161 | 161 | |
| Source: [7] | |||||
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Likely R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Lean R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Lean R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Marist College | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 55% | 44% | 1% |
| UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| YouGov[A] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 41% | 11%[b] |
| University of Houston | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Emerson College[B] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| YouGov[A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| YouGov[A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 37% | 18% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[c] |
| CWS Research (R) | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Emerson College | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | 17% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 37% | 13% | 6% | 3% | – |
| YouGov[A] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 36% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 35% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Emerson College[B] | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| YouGov[A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 12% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 46% | 34% | 9% | 11%[d] |
| Marist College | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 36% | 15% | 1% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 13%[e] |
| YouGov[C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 8%[f] |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Manchin No Labels |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | February 6–8, 2024 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 9% |
- Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 39% | 15%[g] |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| YouGov[A] | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 40% | 29%[h] |
| YouGov[C] | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| YouGov[A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| YouGov[A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 32% | 34% | 34% |
- Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 33% | 36% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | February 1–3, 2024 | 605 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 30% | 32% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 24% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| YouGov[A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 38% | 24% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 42% | 14%[i] |
| CWS Research (R) | April 17–21, 2023 | 677 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 40% | 15%[j] |
- Vivek Ramaswamy vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Vivek Ramaswamy Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[A] | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 34% | 37% | 30% |
| YouGov[A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 36% | 32% |
- Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 29% | 36% | 36% |
- Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov[A] | October 5–17, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
Debate[edit]
The first presidential debate for the general election is scheduled to be held at Texas State University in San Marcos on September 16, 2024, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Whether either major party nominee will attend the debates has been called into question due to conflicts with the commission regarding the 2020 debates.[14]
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Texas
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ "Don't know" with 8%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%; Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Undecided with 10%; Chase Oliver (L) with 3%
- ^ Libertarian candidate with 1%
- ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Someone else" with 21%
- ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
- ^ "Don't know" with 10%; "Libertarian candidate" with 3%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
References[edit]
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "House Generic Ballot Estimates, 2008-2022". Split Ticket. April 7, 2023.
- ^ "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Texas Democratic Primary Election Results". Texas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Texas Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ Cohen, Ethan (November 20, 2023). "Commission on Presidential Debates announces dates and locations for 2024 general election debates". CNN. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
