User:RonCram/AGWControversySandbox

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What is the controversy about?[edit]

The controversy is about five claims, positions or proposals:

    1. The claim that an increase in atmospheric CO2 from man's burning of fossil fuels is mainly responsible for increasing global surface temperatures. (Asks the questions: Is warming global? Is it possible it is mainly regional? If so, what does that mean? What does the satellite data say regional warming? What does physics say about atmospheric CO2? What other climate forces could be at work? How much is attributable to man?)
    2. The position of the keepers of the temperature record that they do not need to archive and make available their data and methods (making it impossible for other scientists to verify the extent of the reported warming or how the Urban Heat Island (UHI) is handled). When Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was asked for archived data and methods, he replied: "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it?" [1] [2] (Asks the questions: Is the warming real or an artifact of instrument error or UHI bias? Is the warming real or an artifact of errors in the handling and adjustments of the dataset? Why haven't the data and methods been released?).
    3. The position of the IPCC that (contrary to McIntyre, the Wegman Report and the NAS) current temps are the warmest in 1300 years. (Asks the questions: Why did the IPCC reaffirm this position without a thorough examination of the Hockey stick controversy? Is there evidence the IPCC is driven by politics instead of science?)
    4. The claim that warming will continue at least until 2100 resulting in catastrophic consequences, including extinctions and increasing weather catastrophes. (Asks the questions: Is it reasonable to conclude the current warming climate regime will continue without interruption for nearly 100 years? Have any observations been made or peer-reviewed articles published that indicate a coming change in the climate regime? What does the science say about global warming causing increasing number of hurricanes?)
    5. The steps society should take to prevent, mitigate or adapt to global warming. (Asks the questions: Is the Kyoto Protocol economically viable? Is the Kyoto Protocol politically viable? What other steps have been proposed for either mitigation or adaptation?)

Outline[edit]

  • 1. Is the planet warming globally?
  • Is it regional? Discuss satellite info [3]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is a global temperature even possible? [4]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is the temperature record reliable or a result of instrument error (Urban Heat Island or other) or the result of unwarranted tampering? [5] [6] [7] [8] [9]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Why are the differences so striking between the GHCN data sets and the data sets constructed by Phil Jones and the CRU and used by IPCC? [10]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Are adjustments to the temperature record warranted? [11] [12] [13] See Comment 15 [14] and notice that 1930s were warmer than the 1990s in this graph from 1999. [15] [16]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Why are the data and methods of climate researchers not archived and availabe for audit? [17] [18] [19] [20]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Do satellites or other methods contradict the surface temperature record? [21] [22] [23] [24]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • 2. How does the current warming compare to historical record?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Criticism of data, methods, and proxies. [27]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • What significance does the historical record hold for the debate. [28] [29]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • 3. Is the IPCC fairly reflecting the science?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is the IPCC fairly considering internal climate variation and climate regime shifts from ocean-atmosphere interactions? [31] [32]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is the IPCC fairly considering external climate forcings? [33] [34]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is the IPCC fairly considering all of the negative feedbacks such as DMS? [35]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is there evidence the IPCC is driven by politics instead of science? [36] [37] [38] [39]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • 4. What are the causes of observed warming?
  • Natural greenhouse gas contributions: The effect of water vapour and other natural greenhouse gases
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Human contributions: CO2 plus land use changes - more bovine farming etc.
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Solar variation
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Solar variation with Cosmic Ray cloud formation
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Snow albedo affected by carbon soot [40]
  • Population increase
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Natural climate variation - possibly reversion to average long term temperatures following the LIA
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • 5. What are projections for the future?
  • Model limitations (not falsifiable, state of science is limited in some areas) [41] [42] [43] Add a quote from chapter four of Pilkey's book "Useless Arithmetic."
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Analysis of computer code - criticisms of Dan Hughes [44]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Alternate projections [47]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is it reasonable assume that increased atmospheric CO2 will always have a warming effect? Some scientists say the law of diminishing returns applies to CO2. As far as carbon dioxide itself is concerned, "at some point the heat-trapping capacity of [the gas] and its effect get saturated," said Frappier, "and you don't have increased heating." In other words, the gas can't trap heat indefinitely since its capacity to do so eventually plateaus. [48]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Have any observations or peer-reviewed articles proposed any coming change to the climate regime? [49]
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Is it reasonable to presume no change in climate regime for nearly 100 years?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • 6. What are the projected effects both positive and negative?
  • Will increased CO2 cause a greening of the earth? <br%20/>
  • Will warming be mostly good for humanity?
  • 7. What evidence were the previous global climate change alarms based upon?
  • Was this evidence correct or subsequently found to be wrong?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • What can we learn from these previous climate alarm predictions and the actual subsequent climate changes?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • What would the cost have been to the global economy if we had acted to prevent these prior global cooling & global warming alarms?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • Would any of the suggested changes have been beneficial based on our current understanding?
IPCC papers
Skeptic papers
  • 8. What should be done about global warming?
  • Is carbon trading big business? [50] [51]
  • Is the Kyoto Protocol economically viable? [52]
  • Is Kyoto politically viable?
  • Does Kyoto have the ability to make any appreciable difference?
  • What other steps for mitigation or adaptation have been proposed?

Global Warming controversy[edit]

A controversy exists regarding the surface temperature record and claims by the majority of climate scientists that the warming

  • is global and can be seen in the temperature record and rising sea level
  • is caused by increased atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels
  • will severely damage the environment, including species extinctions and increasing adverse weather events
  • should be mitigated through a reduction in CO2 emissions as through Kyoto Protocol

See other wikipedia articles for more information on Global warming, Attribution of recent climate change and List of scientists opposing global warming consensus

Is the planet warming globally?[edit]

If the planet is warming because of increased atmospheric CO2, would the warming be uniform across the planet or would it affect certain regions more? NASA tracks satellite data and web publishes images showing where the planet is warming and where it is cooling. [53]

UHI links[edit]

Severe weather events[edit]

Dendro articles[edit]

  • Increased temperature sensitivity and divergent growth trends in circumpolar boreal forests by M. Wilmking et al 2005 (Steve McIntyre comments "For example, Martin Wilmking has reported positive and negative responders at latitudinal treeline, a result that he stated would have major impact on the millennial reconstruction project. This finding is not cited nor discussed nor incorporated in IPCC 4AR and thus, even though articulated by an excellent dendroclimatologist, cannot be counted as being part of 'consensus science.'" [55])

CO2 papers[edit]

Cosmic ray links[edit]

Science resources[edit]

  • Articles by T.R. Oke on Urban Heat Island and other matters
  • [56]
  • [57]
  • [58]
  • Heat storage within the Earth system by Roger Pielke, Sr. Note- Pielke defines global warming "as a positive accumulation of heat (Joules) in the climate system, of which most occurs in the oceans (see Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: Heat storage within the Earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 331-335). While surface temperature as also been used to define this heating, it has a range of problems with its use in this context, as we have discussed in our papers, and in earlier weblogs, with more to follow." [59]

Links[edit]

  • Jan Janssens comments on SPM4 [62]
  • Stern Review: A Dual Critique [63]
  • Data Access and Data Contribution [64]
  • Are Climate Models Reliable? [65]
  • Danish scientist: Global warming is a myth[66]
  • American Association of State Climatologists [67]
  • World Climate Report a blog by Patrick Michaels [68]
  • Climate Change: the human influence analysed by Dr. Harry N.A. Priem [69]
  • A Critical Examination of Climate Change by Dr. Douglas Hoyt [70]
  • Stripped of title [71]
  • Climate Police [72]
  • Warmal Globing [73]
  • The Other Side of the Global Warming Debate [74]
  • EnviroSpin Watch - a blog by Philip Stott [75]
  • Science and Environmental Policy Project - a research efffort by S. Fred Singer[76] - See Board of Science Advisors
  • ClimatePrediction.net [77] predicts up to 11C increase in temps based on doubling of CO2
  • Coolwire 11 assessment of ClimatePrediction.net [78]
  • More Trees, Less Global Warming, Right? -- Not Exactly By Nikhil Swaminathan Scientific American [79] New study by Ken Caldeira published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that tropical forests contribute to cooling but boreal forests contribute to warming. No computer model shows this.
  • Has the IPCC lost all credibility? [80]
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