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Scenarios for matches on 2-4 September in the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations qualification where teams could (1) clinch being no worse than 1 of the 2 best 2nd place teams or (2) be unable to qualify even if they can still finish 2nd, based on results of matches being played in other groups the same days. If a team is listed as "possibly affected" under a category but have no conditions listed, it means that there is no scenario in which they would not fit the category. For example, in Group F the worst possible finish for Burkina Faso is 2nd place with 9 points; therefor, in all the "Teams with X points will advance" categories, Burkina Faso are listed with no conditions because no matter what happens in their group they have already clinched that. If a listed scenario is ~~struck through~~ it means that team would already have been eliminated by the same conditions at a lower point level.

Teams with max 5 pts ARE eliminated[edit]

Group B; Madagascar, Ethiopia
Group C; Mozambique
Group E Congo DR, Cameroon
Group F; Namibia
Group G Egypt
Group H Benin, Rwanda
Group J; Guinea-Bissau

Additional teams would would finish 2nd with 5 points or less:

Group A; Zimbabwe if they draw with Cape Verde
Group B; Nigeria if they don't defeat Guinea and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Group D (additional possible scenarios for all 4 teams if Tanzania and Algeria both win)
- Central African Republic if
  - they lose to Algeria and Tanzania don't defeat Morocco
  - both matches draw
- Morocco if they lose to Tanzania and Algeria don't defeat the Central African Republic
Group F; Gambia if they don't defeat Burkina Faso
Group G; South Africa and Sierra Leone if they draw
Group H; Burundi if they don't defeat Ivory Coast or Rwanda don't defeat Benin
Group J; Uganda if
- they lose to Kenya and Guinea-Bissau defeat Angola
- they draw and Angola win

Teams with max 6 pts will be eliminated if any ONE of[edit]

Group A, either
- Cape Verde defeat Zimbabwe and Liberia don't defeat Mali
- Mali win and Cape Verde and Zimbabwe don't draw
Group B, either
- Nigeria defeat Guinea
- Nigeria and Guinea draw and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya don't defeat Zambia
Group D, Morocco defeat Tanzania and Central African Republic defeat Algeria
Group G, Niger defeat Egypt and South Africa and Sierra Leone don't draw
Group J, Kenya defeat Uganda and Angola defeat Guinea-Bissau

Teams affected:

Group A, Mali if
- they lose to Liberia and Cape Verde and Zimbabwe don't draw
- they draw and Zimbabwe win
Group B, Nigeria if they lose to Guinea
Group C, Zambia if they lose to Libya
Group D
- Algeria and Tanzania
- Morrocco if
  - they lose to Tanzania or Central African Republic defeat Algeria
Group F, Gambia
Group G, Niger if they don't defeat Egypt and South Africa and Sierra Leone don't draw
Group H, Burundi
Group J, Angola if they don't defeat Guinea-Bissau or Uganda defeat Kenya

Teams with max 7 pts will be eliminated if any TWO of[edit]

Group B, either
- Nigeria defeat Guinea 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
- Nigeria win by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar win
Group C, Zambia and Libya draw
Group D, Morocco defeat Tanzania and Central African Republic defeat Algeria
Group I, Sudan and Ghana draw

Teams affected:

Group A
- Cape Verde, if Liberia don't defeat Mali
- Zimbabwe if Mali defeat Liberia
Group B
- Nigeria if
  - they defeat Guinea by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
  - they don't win
- Guinea if they lose to Nigeria 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya if they lose to Zambia
Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone if they don't draw and Niger defeat Egypt
Group I, the loser between Sudan and Ghana
Group J, Kenya if Angola defeat Guinea-Bissau

Teams with 9 pts ADVANCE[edit]

Group B
- Guinea if Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia

Teams with 8 pts will advance if any TWO of:[edit]

Group B, either
- Nigeria don't defeat Guinea
- Nigeria win 1-0 or by at least 2 goals and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
- Nigeria win by only 1 goal (except 1-0) and Madagascar don't win
Group C, Zambia and Libya don't draw
Group D, Central African Republic don't defeat Algeria or Morocco don't defeat Tanzania
Group I, Sudan and Ghana don't draw

Teams affected:

Group C, Libya if they draw with Zambia
Group D, Morocco or Central African Republic if they both win
Group I, Sudan if they draw with Ghana

Teams with 7 pts will advance if any FIVE of:[edit]

Group A, either
- Liberia defeat Mali
- Cape Verde and Zimbabwe draw
- Liberia and Mali draw and Zimbabwe win
Group B, either
- Guinea defeat Nigeria
- Guinea and Nigeria draw and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya defeat Zambia
Group D, Central African Republic don't defeat Algeria or Morocco don't defeat Tanzania
Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone draw or Niger don't defeat Egypt
Group J, Kenya don't defeat Uganda or Angola don't defeat Guinea-Bissau

Teams affected:

Group A, the winner between Cape Verde and Zimbabwe
Group B
- Guinea
- Nigeria if
  - they defeat Guinea
  - they draw and Madagascar defeat Ethiopia
Group C, Libya
Group G, the winner between South Africa and Sierra Leone
Group I, Ghana and Sudan
Group J, Kenya if they defeat Uganda

Teams with 6 pts will advance if ALL SEVEN of:[edit]

Group A, Cape Verde and Zimbabwe draw
Group B, Nigeria don't defeat Guinea and Madagascar don't defeat Ethiopia
Group D, any of the following (also depends on tiebreakers to determine 2nd and last place teams)
- Algeria defeat Central African Republic
- Tanzania defeat Morocco
- both matches draw
Group F, Gambia don't defeat Burkina Faso
Group G, South Africa and Sierra Leone draw
Group H, Rwanda don't defeat Benin or Burundi don't defeat Ivory Coast
Group J, either
- Kenya defeat Uganda and Guinea-Bissau defeat Angola
- Kenya and Uganda draw and Angola win

Because Groups C and I already have clinched (as a group) a minimum of 6 and 7 points respectively, this scenario applies only to Zambia in Group C