2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
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Elections in Virginia |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024.[1]
Background[edit]
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]
Democratic primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
Endorsements[edit]
- U.S representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)[8]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[9]
- Organizations
- Feminist Majority PAC[10]
- Giffords[8]
- Harvard College Democrats[11]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[12]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[13]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[14]
- J Street PAC[15]
- League of Conservation Voters[16]
- LGBT Democrats of Virginia[17]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC[18]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[19]
- NextGen America PAC[9]
- Population Connection Action Fund[20]
- Sierra Club[21]
- Labor unions
Fundraising[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Tim Kaine (D) | $13,030,712 | $6,794,892 | $8,755,481 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[23] |
Republican primary[edit]
Candidates[edit]
Declared[edit]
- Hung Cao, nonprofit founder, U.S. Navy veteran, and nominee for Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2022[24]
- Jonathan Emord, author and constitutional litigator[25]
- Eddie Garcia, financial advisor, former congressional aide, and retired U.S. Army officer[26]
- Scott Parkinson, Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis[27]
- Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2010, and candidate for Attorney General of Virginia in 2017 and 2021[28]
Endorsements[edit]
- Individuals
- Oliver North, former President of the National Rifle Association of America (2018–2019)[29] and nominee for this seat in 1994
- U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from TX-14 (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) (Libertarian)[30]
- Barry Goldwater Jr., former U.S. representative from CA-20 (1969–1983)[30]
- U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
- Jim DeMint, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)[31]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)[32]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[33]
- U.S. representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana (2017–present)[31]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona (2017–present)[31]
- Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina (2019–present)[31]
- Lauren Boebert, U.S. representative from Colorado (2021–present)[33]
- Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative from Oklahoma (2023–present)[31]
- Eli Crane, U.S. representative from Arizona (2023–present)[31]
- Bob Good. U.S. representative from Virginia (2021–present)[34]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida (2021–present)[32]
- Mary Miller, U.S. representative from Illinois (2021–present)[32]
- Barry Moore, U.S. representative from Alabama (2021–present)[31]
- Anna Paulina Luna, U.S. representative from Florida (2023–present)[31]
- Scott Perry, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania (2013–present)[32]
- August Pfluger, U.S. representative from Texas (2021–present)[32]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana (2021–present)[31]
- Jason Smith, U.S. representative from Missouri (2013–present)[32]
- Individuals
- David Bossie, president of Citizens United[35]
- Organizations
- State legislators
- Amanda Chase, former state senator from the 11th district (2016–2024)[36]
Fundraising[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Hung Cao (R) | $2,036,423 | $1,557,642 | $571,261 |
Jonathan Emord (R) | $808,722[a] | $776,557 | $32,165 |
Eddie Garcia (R) | $298,802 | $281,916 | $16,885 |
Scott Parkinson (R) | $841,133 | $469,182 | $371,950 |
Chuck Smith (R) | $509,949 | $485,433 | $24,516 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[23] |
Results[edit]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Hung Cao | |||
Republican | Jonathan Emord | |||
Republican | Eddie Garcia | |||
Republican | Scott Parkinson | |||
Republican | Chuck Smith | |||
Total votes | 100.00% |
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[38] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily[39] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
Inside Elections[40] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
CNalysis[42] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Polling[edit]
- Tim Kaine vs. Hung Cao
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Hung Cao (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[A] | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
- Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14-25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3%[c] | 7% |
University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10%[d] | 10% |
Results[edit]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | TBD | ||||
Total votes | 100.00% |
Notes[edit]
- ^ Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines
References[edit]
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
- ^ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ a b Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
- ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
- ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
- ^ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
- ^ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
- ^ Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
- ^ a b "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ a b Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
- ^ Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
- ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ "Candidates & Referendums June 18, 2024 Primary Elections". elections.Virginia.Gov. April 15, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
External links[edit]
- Official campaign websites