User:Ralbegen/Opinion poll code
For the graph of UK general election opinion polls I maintain:
.svg)
I have a csv of general election results called gen2019.csv that looks like this:
date,Conservatives,Labour,Lib Dems,SNP,Greens,Others
2019-12-12,.447,.329,.118,.040,.028,.043And a csv of polls called pollsafter2019.csv organised like this:
date,Conservatives,Labour,Lib Dems,SNP,Greens,Others
2020-01-10,.44,.29,.11,.03,.05,.06
2020-01-17,.47,.30,.09,.05,.04,.06
...(The full csv as of time of writing, which should work with the end date in the below code, is at the bottom of this page)
The R code goes like this:
# Libraries ---------------------------------------------------------------
library(here)
library(tidyverse)
library(scales)
library(grid)
library(ggrepel)
library(lubridate)
# Functions ---------------------------------------------------------------
import_plot_data <- function(path, import_others = FALSE) {
initial_data <- read_csv(here(path)) %>%
pivot_longer(cols = 2:dim(.)[2],
names_to = "party",
values_to = "value"
) %>%
drop_na(value) %>%
arrange(date,
party)
if (import_others) {
data <- initial_data
} else {
data <- initial_data %>%
filter(party != "Others", party != "Other")
}
return(data)
}
import_colours <- function(path, import_others = FALSE) {
initial_colours <- read_csv(here(path)) %>%
arrange(party)
if (import_others) {
colours <- initial_colours
} else if (!import_others) {
colours <- initial_colours %>%
filter(party != "Others", party != "Other")
} else return(null)
return(colours)
}
calculate_label_positions <- function(polls, plot_span) {
return(polls %>%
mutate(date = as.numeric(date)) %>%
nest(-party) %>%
mutate(m = map(data,
loess,
formula = value ~ date,
span = plot_span),
fitted = map(m, `[[`, "fitted")) %>%
select(-m) %>%
unnest(cols = c(data, fitted)) %>%
arrange(date, party) %>%
group_by(party) %>%
mutate(date = as.Date(date, origin = "1970-01-01")) %>%
slice(which.max(as.Date(date))) %>%
ungroup()
)
}
generate_poll_plot <- function(polls,
elections,
party_colours,
label_positions,
plot_span,
upper_limit,
break_period,
first_date,
last_date
) {
poll_plot_c <- ggplot(data = polls,
mapping = aes(x = date, y = value, colour = party)) +
geom_point(data = elections, shape = "square") +
geom_vline(xintercept = elections$date, alpha = .25) +
geom_point(alpha = .5, size = 1) +
geom_smooth(method = "loess",
formula = y ~ x,
se = FALSE,
n = 1000,
span = plot_span,
alpha = 0) +
scale_colour_manual(values = party_colours) +
labs(x = "", y = "") +
theme(legend.position = "none") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = percent_format(accuracy = 1),
breaks = seq(from = .0, to = upper_limit, .1),
limits = c(-.01, upper_limit + .01),
expand = c(0, 0)) +
scale_x_date(date_labels = "%b %Y",
breaks = break_period,
limits = c(first_date, last_date),
expand = c(0, 0)) +
geom_text_repel(data = label_positions,
mapping = aes(label = party, colour = party, y = fitted),
direction = "y",
hjust = "left",
nudge_x = 16,
min.segment.length = 2,
xlim = c(first_date, last_date + duration(1000, "years"))) +
theme(plot.margin = unit(c(1,6,.5,1), "lines"),
panel.background = element_rect(fill = "#EEEEEE"))
poll_plot_uc <- ggplotGrob(poll_plot_c)
poll_plot_uc$layout$clip[poll_plot_uc$layout$name == "panel"] <- "off"
return(poll_plot_uc)
}
plot_polls <- function(dir,
polls,
elections,
colours,
include_others = FALSE,
plot_span,
draw = TRUE,
break_period,
size) {
elections_to_plot <- import_plot_data(path = paste0(dir, "/", elections),
import_others = include_others)
polls_to_plot <- import_plot_data(path = paste0(dir, "/", polls),
import_others = include_others)
upper_limit <- ceiling(max(polls_to_plot$value * 10))/10
label_positions <- calculate_label_positions(polls_to_plot, plot_span)
first_date <- floor_date(elections_to_plot$date[[1]], unit = "month")
last_date <- as.Date(label_positions$date[[1]]) + duration(7, "days")
party_colours <- import_colours(path = paste0(dir, "/", colours),
import_others = include_others)$colour
poll_plot <- generate_poll_plot(polls_to_plot,
elections_to_plot,
party_colours,
label_positions,
plot_span,
upper_limit,
break_period,
first_date,
last_date)
if (draw == TRUE) grid.draw(poll_plot)
if (size == "primary") {
plot_width <- 720
plot_height <- 420
} else if (size == "secondary") {
plot_width <- 500
plot_height <- 300
} else print("Invalid height!")
ggsave(filename = paste0(dir, "/plots/plot_", date(), ".svg"),
plot = poll_plot,
scale = 0.4,
width = plot_width,
height = plot_height,
units = "mm")
}
Please feel free to adapt the code for your own purposes! Just please note I'm not likely to be much help if you need technical assistance with it.
The full csv is here:
date,Conservatives,Labour,Lib Dems,SNP,Greens,Others
2020-01-10,.44,.29,.11,.03,.05,.06
2020-01-17,.47,.30,.09,.05,.04,.06
2020-01-26,.49,.29,.10,.05,.04,.03
2020-01-31,.44,.33,.10,.05,.03,.05
2020-02-02,.49,.30,.08,.04,.05,.04
2020-02-03,.47,.30,.11,.04,.05,.03
2020-02-07,.41,.29,.11,.05,.08,.07
2020-02-10,.48,.28,.10,.04,.06,.04
2020-02-12,.49,.31,.09,.04,.04,.03
2020-02-14,.47,.32,.07,.06,.04,.04
2020-02-20,.47,.31,.09,.04,.04,.04
2020-03-06,.45,.28,.11,.03,.06,.06
2020-03-09,.50,.29,.11,.04,.02,.05
2020-03-13,.49,.32,.06,.05,.05,.04
2020-03-16,.52,.30,.09,.04,.04,.01
2020-03-20,.51,.31,.07,.05,.03,.03
2020-03-23,.47,.29,.08,.05,.05,.06
2020-03-26,.54,.28,.07,.04,.04,.02
2020-03-27,.54,.28,.06,.05,.03,.03
2020-04-02,.49,.29,.08,.04,.04,.03
2020-04-02,.52,.28,.08,.05,.05,.06
2020-04-03,.53,.30,.07,.05,.03,.03
2020-04-09,.55,.29,.05,.05,.04,.05
2020-04-09,.46,.29,.10,.03,.06,.02
2020-04-17,.52,.31,.08,.04,.03,.02
2020-04-17,.53,.32,.05,.04,.03,.03
2020-04-17,.51,.32,.06,.05,.03,.03
2020-04-20,.54,.28,.09,.04,.04,.02
2020-04-23,.50,.33,.07,.05,.03,.02
2020-04-26,.50,.33,.07,.05,.04,.01
2020-04-28,.48,.31,.08,.04,.05,.05
2020-05-01,.51,.33,.06,.05,.03,.03
2020-05-06,.50,.30,.07,.04,.05,.05
2020-05-06,.50,.31,.07,.04,.05,.03
2020-05-07,.49,.33,.06,.05,.05,.03
2020-05-11,.51,.32,.07,.05,.02,.04
2020-05-14,.49,.34,.06,.05,.03,.03
2020-05-15,.47,.35,.09,.04,.03,.02
2020-05-17,.46,.33,.07,.04,.04,.04
2020-05-19,.48,.33,.06,.05,.05,.04
2020-05-22,.47,.35,.06,.05,.03,.03
2020-05-26,.46,.33,.08,.05,.04,.04
2020-05-26,.44,.38,.06,.05,.04,.04
2020-05-27,.43,.38,.07,.05,.04,.05
2020-05-27,.43,.37,.09,.05,.03,.03
2020-05-28,.43,.38,.08,.03,.04,.04
2020-05-29,.43,.39,.06,.05,.03,.04
2020-05-30,.45,.35,.06,.05,.05,.03
2020-06-03,.43,.36,.09,.04,.05,.04
2020-06-03,.41,.39,.07,.04,.04,.05
2020-06-05,.41,.38,.08,.02,.04,.06
2020-06-05,.43,.40,.06,.05,.03,.03
2020-06-10,.43,.38,.10,.04,.03,.04
2020-06-10,.42,.36,.08,.05,.04,.05
2020-06-11,.41,.39,.09,.05,.04,.02
2020-06-12,.45,.37,.06,.05,.04,.03
2020-06-12,.44,.39,.06,.05,.02,.02
2020-06-14,.40,.36,.09,.05,.03,.08
2020-06-15,.43,.35,.08,.05,.04,.03
2020-06-18,.43,.38,.08,.04,.04,.04
2020-06-19,.44,.40,.05,.05,.03,.03
2020-06-25,.43,.36,.08,.05,.04,.04
2020-06-25,.44,.38,.07,.04,.04,.02
2020-06-26,.43,.39,.06,.05,.04,.04
2020-06-28,.45,.37,.06,.05,.04,.03
2020-07-01,.42,.38,.08,.04,.05,.02
2020-07-03,.41,.37,.08,.05,.04,.05
2020-07-03,.41,.36,.07,.03,.05,.08
2020-07-06,.44,.37,.07,.04,.04,.03
2020-07-08,.44,.39,.07,.04,.04,.02
2020-07-09,.46,.36,.06,.05,.03,.04
2020-07-10,.44,.38,.07,.03,.03,.05
2020-07-10,.42,.38,.06,.06,.04,.04
2020-07-12,.42,.36,.08,.04,.05,.05
2020-07-13,.45,.35,.09,.05,.02,.05
2020-07-15,.44,.37,.08,.04,.04,.02
2020-07-17,.44,.36,.06,.06,.04,.04
2020-07-19,.43,.37,.06,.05,.02,.07
2020-07-22,.44,.36,.08,.04,.05,.04
2020-07-23,.45,.35,.07,.05,.04,.05
2020-07-24,.42,.38,.06,.05,.04,.05
2020-07-29,.43,.38,.07,.04,.04,.03
2020-07-31,.41,.38,.06,.06,.04,.06
2020-07-31,.43,.35,.06,.05,.05,.05
2020-08-03,.44,.35,.08,.04,.05,.03
2020-08-04,.45,.37,.06,.05,.05,.02
2020-08-05,.42,.36,.08,.05,.05,.04
2020-08-10,.42,.35,.08,.06,.03,.06
2020-08-12,.44,.35,.05,.06,.03,.05
2020-08-12,.43,.36,.09,.04,.04,.03
2020-08-14,.42,.39,.05,.05,.03,.06
2020-08-16,.42,.37,.07,.04,.03,.07
2020-08-19,.40,.38,.06,.05,.06,.06
2020-08-19,.44,.37,.07,.04,.04,.03
2020-08-21,.41,.37,.09,.04,.04,.04
2020-08-24,.42,.37,.09,.04,.05,.03
2020-08-25,.43,.36,.06,.05,.04,.04
2020-08-28,.40,.40,.06,.05,.03,.02
2020-09-02,.43,.37,.08,.04,.04,.03
2020-09-04,.40,.38,.08,.05,.04,.06
2020-09-04,.43,.37,.06,.05,.04,.05
2020-09-08,.42,.38,.06,.05,.05,.04
2020-09-09,.42,.37,.06,.05,.04,.05
2020-09-11,.42,.39,.06,.05,.04,.04
2020-09-16,.41,.39,.08,.05,.05,.03
2020-09-16,.40,.38,.08,.05,.04,.06
2020-09-17,.40,.40,.06,.04,.05,.05
2020-09-18,.40,.37,.08,.06,.05,.03
2020-09-20,.40,.37,.08,.05,.03,.07
2020-09-21,.40,.38,.09,.04,.04,.07
2020-09-23,.40,.40,.07,.04,.05,.03
2020-09-24,.41,.38,.06,.04,.05,.03
2020-09-25,.39,.42,.05,.06,.04,.04
2020-09-25,.42,.38,.06,.05,.04,.05
2020-09-27,.41,.38,.08,.05,.03,.04
2020-09-30,.39,.39,.06,.05,.05,.06
2020-10-01,.39,.39,.08,.05,.05,.05
2020-10-04,.42,.39,.07,.04,.03,.05
2020-10-06,.41,.37,.07,.04,.04,.07
2020-10-07,.41,.38,.05,.05,.06,.05
2020-10-07,.41,.39,.08,.04,.04,.03
2020-10-09,.40,.40,.06,.06,.03,.06
2020-10-11,.39,.39,.07,.05,.04,.03
2020-10-15,.39,.38,.06,.05,.06,.07
2020-10-17,.41,.38,.05,.05,.06,.05
2020-10-18,.42,.36,.08,.04,.03,.07
2020-10-21,.40,.40,.07,.05,.04,.04
2020-10-22,.40,.39,.07,.05,.05,.06
2020-10-23,.38,.40,.06,.05,.05,.06
2020-10-24,.42,.39,.07,.03,.03,.07
2020-10-26,.42,.39,.07,.04,.03,.04
2020-10-28,.37,.42,.08,.06,.05,.03
2020-10-28,.39,.41,.07,.04,.04,.04
2020-10-29,.38,.38,.06,.05,.05,.07
2020-11-02,.40,.40,.07,.05,.03,.06
2020-11-05,.35,.40,.07,.05,.04,.09
2020-11-06,.39,.37,.09,.05,.04,.06
2020-11-06,.38,.42,.07,.05,.03,.06
2020-11-09,.40,.36,.08,.05,.05,.05
2020-11-09,.40,.36,.08,.05,.05,.05
2020-11-11,.40,.40,.07,.05,.05,.03
2020-11-12,.38,.40,.05,.05,.05,.06
2020-11-15,.41,.38,.05,.05,.04,.07
2020-11-18,.38,.37,.07,.06,.06,.07
2020-11-19,.40,.39,.08,.05,.04,.04
2020-11-20,.41,.38,.06,.06,.04,.05
2020-11-22,.39,.37,.07,.05,.04,.08
2020-11-27,.37,.40,.05,.06,.05,.08
2020-11-28,.39,.37,.07,.05,.05,.06
2020-11-28,.37,.38,.09,.04,.04,.08
2020-11-29,.39,.38,.08,.05,.03,.08
2020-12-02,.40,.37,.09,.05,.06,.04
2020-12-03,.38,.38,.06,.05,.05,.07
2020-12-04,.38,.40,.06,.06,.03,.08
2020-12-08,.40,.38,.06,.05,.04,.07
2020-12-09,.37,.38,.08,.05,.06,.07
2020-12-10,.39,.37,.08,.05,.05,.06
2020-12-10,.41,.41,.06,.05,.05,.02
2020-12-13,.38,.37,.08,.05,.05,.07
2020-12-14,.38,.37,.10,.05,.03,.06
2020-12-16,.39,.37,.06,.05,.06,.07
2020-12-17,.39,.39,.06,.05,.04,.07
2020-12-21,.41,.39,.08,.05,.04,.04
2020-12-22,.37,.41,.05,.05,.05,.06
2020-12-22,.39,.38,.08,.05,.04,.07
2020-12-29,.36,.38,.09,.04,.07,.07
2020-12-30,.43,.38,.04,.05,.05,.06
2021-01-05,.39,.39,.06,.05,.06,.06
2021-01-07,.39,.40,.06,.05,.04,.06
2021-01-10,.40,.37,.08,.04,.04,.07
2021-01-11,.41,.37,.08,.05,.05,.03
2021-01-13,.40,.38,.07,.04,.05,.07
2021-01-14,.38,.39,.05,.05,.06,.03
2021-01-15,.37,.41,.06,.06,.04,.06
2021-01-17,.39,.37,.07,.05,.03,.05
2021-01-18,.40,.38,.08,.04,.05,.04
2021-01-22,.39,.38,.05,.05,.06,.07
2021-01-23,.41,.39,.07,.04,.03,.06
2021-01-24,.40,.37,.08,.05,.03,.07
2021-01-25,.40,.37,.10,.04,.05,.04
2021-01-25,.42,.37,.08,.05,.04,.05
2021-01-27,.37,.41,.06,.05,.04,.07
2021-01-29,.41,.38,.07,.05,.04,.05
2021-01-31,.41,.38,.06,.05,.03,.07
2021-02-01,.43,.37,.05,.05,.05,.05
2021-02-01,.40,.38,.08,.05,.04,.04
2021-02-02,.39,.38,.07,.06,.06,.04
2021-02-04,.42,.38,.07,.05,.08,.00
2021-02-06,.39,.33,.09,.05,.07,.06
2021-02-07,.41,.37,.08,.04,.04,.07
2021-02-08,.43,.38,.07,.05,.04,.03
2021-02-10,.41,.36,.06,.05,.07,.07
2021-02-12,.42,.37,.06,.05,.05,.05
2021-02-14,.42,.37,.07,.04,.03,.07
2021-02-15,.41,.39,.08,.05,.05,.03
2021-02-18,.40,.37,.07,.06,.05,.05
2021-02-21,.40,.38,.07,.04,.03,.09
2021-02-22,.40,.33,.11,.04,.06,.07
2021-02-22,.43,.37,.07,.04,.05,.04
2021-02-26,.43,.36,.07,.06,.04,.04
2021-02-26,.42,.38,.06,.02,.04,.07
2021-02-26,.41,.36,.05,.05,.07,.05
2021-02-28,.43,.36,.07,.04,.03,.07
2021-03-01,.44,.38,.07,.04,.03,.03
2021-03-04,.45,.32,.06,.05,.07,.05
2021-03-07,.42,.36,.08,.04,.04,.08
2021-03-08,.45,.36,.07,.04,.04,.04
2021-03-10,.43,.33,.09,.05,.05,.05
2021-03-10,.42,.33,.07,.04,.06,.06
2021-03-12,.45,.38,.06,.05,.05,.01
2021-03-12,.43,.37,.06,.05,.04,.04
2021-03-14,.39,.37,.08,.04,.04,.08
2021-03-15,.43,.36,.07,.04,.05,.04
2021-03-16,.42,.37,.07,.05,.05,.05
2021-03-19,.39,.37,.09,.04,.06,.05
2021-03-19,.43,.34,.05,.05,.07,.06
2021-03-21,.42,.38,.06,.04,.03,.07
2021-03-22,.42,.36,.09,.04,.06,.04
2021-03-26,.42,.32,.08,.05,.07,.06
2021-03-26,.41,.37,.06,.06,.05,.06
2021-03-27,.44,.36,.06,.02,.04,.08
2021-03-29,.42,.34,.09,.07,.04,.05
2021-03-29,.44,.36,.07,.04,.04,.05
2021-04-01,.42,.34,.07,.05,.06,.06
2021-04-04,.42,.35,.08,.04,.03,.07
2021-04-05,.44,.34,.09,.04,.05,.04
2021-04-08,.41,.34,.06,.05,.06,.07
2021-04-09,.45,.36,.06,.06,.04,.04
2021-04-10,.45,.36,.06,.02,.04,.07
2021-04-10,.43,.35,.08,.03,.04,.06
2021-04-11,.42,.35,.07,.05,.04,.07
2021-04-12,.43,.36,.07,.04,.05,.06
2021-04-14,.43,.29,.08,.05,.08,.06
2021-04-18,.43,.34,.07,.05,.04,.07
2021-04-19,.40,.34,.09,.04,.07,.07
2021-04-19,.44,.34,.10,.04,.04,.06
2021-04-22,.40,.37,.08,.06,.05,.05
2021-04-22,.44,.34,.05,.05,.07,.05
2021-04-23,.44,.33,.07,.06,.05,.06
2021-04-25,.42,.35,.08,.05,.03,.05
2021-04-26,.39,.35,.09,.04,.06,.06
2021-04-26,.41,.33,.10,.05,.07,.05
2021-04-26,.44,.34,.08,.05,.04,.05
2021-04-28,.44,.33,.07,.04,.07,.05
2021-04-29,.39,.38,.09,.04,.06,.05
2021-04-29,.43,.34,.05,.05,.07,.06
2021-04-30,.42,.37,.07,.05,.04,.05
2021-04-30,.40,.39,.06,NA,.03,NA
2021-05-03,.40,.38,.07,.04,.06,.05