Talk:Contango

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Stupid graph[edit]

Guys, the graph is showing how the price of ONE SPECIFIC futures evolves over time. I think it's really misleading for newbies. Somebody should add a second graph that shows the curves. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.232.118.90 (talk) 19:27, 27 March 2012 (UTC)[reply]

Wrong graph[edit]

Actually I the graph is correct, but the explanation doesn't make it plain. I'm going to fix it. Gn842 (talk) 20:34, 3 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The contango and backwardation curves are switched! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 193.136.112.252 (talk) 14:40, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

i think the graphs are the wrong way around ...am i right? i'm not sure?... could someone who knows fix it. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 222.155.177.100 (talk) 07:04, 2 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The graph is wrong please fix it or take it out. Thanks —Preceding unsigned comment added by 200.82.42.73 (talk) 23:25, 19 September 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Be careful[edit]

One has to be careful with the link between contango and cost-of-carry. A clear example where these cannot be used as equal is in the electricity market. Electricity is impossible to store (or too expensive), hence one cannot say that contango is equal to cost of carry!

AC —Preceding unsigned comment added by 129.67.35.8 (talk • contribs) 15:50, 27 September 2006

Someone suggested[edit]

Someone suggested "contango" as an expression to be used for the cost involved in a rollover for FX futures. Were they off??? If they weren't then there should be a link to rollovers too.—Preceding unsigned comment added by 89.51.15.17 (talk • contribs) 01:11, 5 May 2007

I would add[edit]

I would add that in a future's market where speculation is getting TOO important, contango situation would arise only due to price correction, when private investments funds sales their positions.—Preceding unsigned comment added by Iñaki Barturen (talk • contribs) 11:18, 18 June 2007

Merger with Backwardation discussion[edit]

  • Do not merge: Just because they're related that is no reason they can't each have their own article (should we merge Luke Skywalker and Darth Vader just because they're related?). For one thing, each is a topic long enough for its own article. As long as you have a prominent link to Backwardation and an explanation that it is the inverse of Contango - and vice versa - I see no need to merge the articles. ElectricRay 16:16, 1 October 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Exactly. Not only that: the double listing increases exposure for the topic. ~Jas planetjas-com —Preceding unsigned comment added by Planetjas-com (talk • contribs) 16:20, 5 October 2007 (UTC)[reply]

I agree —Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.100.178.169 (talk) 23:39, 17 January 2008 (UTC)[reply]

I agree, mixing the two will amke things less clear not more. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 206.223.235.88 (talk) 22:36, 25 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]

  • Merge-em

Merge them into one article and contrast them carefully to link them to the concept of the yield curve. That is really the point. Alanbrowne (talk) 02:02, 28 February 2008 (UTC)[reply]


The defenition given in Wikipedia does not seem to agree exactly with the defenition given here:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp

The Wikipedia defenition seems to be what investopedia calls the normal and inverted curve, which is the curve of futures AT A GIVEN SNAPSHOT in TIME. But Investopedia indicates that contango and backwadation are actually the price VS time of a given futres date. These are not exactly the same thing. I'm not experet and I don't know which is correct, but the disagreement should be resolved by correction is needed. Mark —Preceding unsigned comment added by 136.182.158.137 (talk) 15:53, 20 May 2008 (UTC)[reply]

--

Above anon comment is relevant. The definition of contango in Wikipedia as of 22th of May 2008 13:06 (GMT+2) is in confusion with the academic definition of contango for futures commodity markets. Contango refers to falling prices of contracts of certain maturity over their lifetime. It can only be assessed as time goes by. What the futures curve is is a snapshot in time for prices of various contracts at different maturities.

Imagine it like this. Take a snapshot of futures contracts prices as a function of their maturity (btw, not the same as time). Now let 1 day pass. Take another snapshot. Repeat for several days. Now animate these graphs into an animation and see what happens to each data point throughout the animation as the maturity comes closer? Do they fall in price? Now you have contango. Do their rise in price? No you have normal backwardation. The snapshot futures curves themselves are either inverted or normal. They are never contango or normal backwardation themselves. Contango/Normal backwardation is what happens to those curves in relation to the expected spot price as time goes by.

While it is often true that a certain type of futures curve results in a contango, they are not the same (cf. a beginning state vs the resulting process). They are apples and oranges. Also, this relation is not a given.

Also, it is important to notice that this academic definition given above may not be what is the common professional use of the word. In this respect the Wikipedia definition may be more 'correct'. That is, people in everyday speech use the term incorrectly in regards to it's accurate academic definition.

However, at the very least it would be necessary to point out this fact: there are two definitions and they refer not only to to different categories of knowledge objects (state vs process), but also that these definitions end up with reverse interpretations of how the prices actually move (up or down).

On a related note, somehow I'm not too surprised that this kind of conceptual jibberdash happens in economics, the dismal science :)

References: Understanding Futures Markets, Kolb, Blackwell, 1997, p.95 http://books.google.com/books?id=h-4t9699lXgC&pg=PA94&lpg=PA94&dq=%22expected+future+spot+price%22&source=web&ots=3Pa3UCCHWM&sig=F1hFekMpDdCAFc6cdz-tCbvZLks&hl=en#PPA94,M1

"Conversely, if hedgers are net long, then the futures prices would lie above the expected future spot price, and the price of the futures contract would fall over its life. This pattern of falling prices is known as a contango. Figure 3.10 depicts these price patterns."

Financial Lexicon, Banks, Palgrave MacMillan, 2005, p. 76

"CONTANGO A market state where FUTURES prices are higher than expected SPOT prices and decline as contract maturity approaches."

Difficult to pick a user name (talk) 10:48, 22 May 2008 (UTC)[reply]

--

Again, this page clearly describes the normal futures market (and the inverse futures market) in the introduction. In the following clarification, the academic definition is used. This must be pointed out because the two aren't interchangeable.

Contango: the current futures price is higher than the expected spot price at maturity.
Backwardation: the current futures prices is lower than the expected spot price at maturity.
Hroptatyr (talk) 10:14, 21 June 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Contango and Oil Prices[edit]

I have changed a passage to reflect that the article quoted was in a tone of uncertainty. Also, since there are ongoing investigations as to whether this practice took place, I added more recent info.

I don't have a good working understanding of economics though, and this section might need to be moved. Regards. ADStark (talk) 17:13, 14 June 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Recent article describes ETF losses by commodity investors[edit]

This should show the risks to the "average" investor:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-22/etfs-imperil-commodity-investors-when-contango-conspires-with-pre-rolling.html —Preceding unsigned comment added by 75.85.14.106 (talk) 09:31, 22 July 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Missing the point?[edit]

There is also alot of text included which does not relate to the subject matter nor provide background understanding.

There are alot of factors which can affect the contango and allow it to go above the storage cost such as risk premium. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Stuartwaudby (talk • contribs) 12:26, 25 October 2011 (UTC)[reply]


WRONG GRAPH[edit]

Hey folks, the graph is wrong. I work in a commodity trading company and we define a commodity being "in contango" when then forward curve has a positive slope. The picture is showing exactly the opposite position. Other sources online correspond to our definition as well i.e. http://commodityhq.com/2012/what-is-contango/ — Preceding unsigned comment added by 153.100.131.12 (talk) 13:00, 26 November 2012 (UTC)[reply]

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