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Could you check if Bulgaria is in fact eliminated; Group 1 minimum for 2nd is 16, 6 is 14 (sweden), 7 is 13 (russia or austria), and 8 is 13 (portugal or bosnia). Bulgaria cannot do better than 12, which would make them eliminated I am quite sure, but based on my earlier miscue I thought it better to have someone else check the numbers.18abruce (talk) 18:48, 12 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]
@18abruce:As far as I'm concerned Bulgaria still has a shot, it doesn't look great, but a chance nevertheless. Here is what my permutations show about the teams which can possibly finish as group runners-up (pts displayed are the ones valid for playoffs):
Group 1 - GRE (16pts now - 19pts max) and CRO (16pts now - 19pts max)
Group 2 - SVK (9pts now - 15pts max), NIR (8pts now - 14pts max) and ISL (5pts now - 15pts max)
Group 3 - DEN (13pts now - 17pts max) and POL (12pts now - 20pts max)
Group 4 - ENG (14pts now - 17pts max), UKR (8pts now - 14pts max), SCO (11pts now - 16pts max) and NED (9pts now - 12pts max)
Group 5 - GER (13pts now - 14pts max), NOR (11pts now - 14pts max) and IRL (9pts now - 14pts max)
Group 6 - BEL (17pts) and SWE (14pts now - 15pts max)
Group 7 - SRB (18pts), AUT (12pts now - 18pts max) and RUS (10pts now - 16pts max)
Group 8 - ROU (15pts now - 18pts max), BIH (12pts now - 15pts max) and POR (13pts now - 16pts max)
Group 9 - SLO (8pts now - 16pts max) and BUL (8pts now - 12pts max)
We must consider that one team in each group will qualify as winner, so the amount of points needed will probably go down, so at the moment the minimum to required to be sure of playoffs is to have 18pts now (as only teams from 4 groups can achieve that), and the minimum to still have a chance is 12pts (only groups 1, 6 will have a runner-up with more, but the other groups might have teams the same amount or less). I'm having another look at it and will get back to you.94.208.106.53 (talk) 19:46, 12 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]
Also consider that AUT, RUS, and BIH cannot come second with the points they have, they must get to 13.18abruce (talk) 20:23, 12 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]
@18abruce: Well spotted, indeed Bulgaria (group 9) and the Netherlands (group 4) are both eliminated, due to the direct confrontation between Austria vs. Russia (group 7) and Portugal vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina (group 8), means both these groups will have a runner-up with 13pts or more (plus groups 1 and 6 alredy have more). New lifeline threshold stands at 13pts max! Feel free to update the templates, I'll back you up if anyone try to revert them in the future! :) Best regards 94.208.106.53 (talk) 20:34, 12 September 2018 (UTC)[reply]
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