Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Wilma

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25L.Wilma[edit]

Wilma and Alpha, dare I say it?[edit]

2 new areas to watch. From the TWO: A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS NEAR JAMAICA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE... ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Which one will get the prize, or will neither develop. Interesting times ahead... Hurricanehink 11:41, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Lets not jump the gun, they are not even invests yet. --Holderca1 15:27, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
True, but the potential is there. They will likely become invests shortly, as Recon is checking out the Caribbean one out in the coming days.
Any more topical depressions lurking about?
98L.INVEST[edit]

Backup Navy site now has the Caribbean/Jamaican disturbance tagged as 98L. -- RattleMan 18:25, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

So does the primary. That link you provided is well out of date, links to when Cindy and Dennis were active. --Holderca1 19:27, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
When I checked the primary Navy site, it said there was a "Hardware failure" and that they would "get it back up as soon as possible", but it looks like it's fixed now. You only see Cindy and Dennis if you click "All" rather than "Active". You must have an outdated cache or something... -- RattleMan 19:45, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I checked the primary out again a second ago, and got this: Forbidden | You don't have permission to access /tc_pages/tc_home.html on this server. | Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request. -- RattleMan 19:50, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Can't be an outdated cache, that is the first time I have ever been to the "backup" site. It has active highlighted and I click active and still only shows Cindy and Dennis. It seems both sites are having issues. --Holderca1 19:58, 14 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Looks like it's getting it's act together. Let't hope Wilma doesn't have the power whatever she hits to knock it back to the stone age. tdwuhs

I smell a very odd pattern... First category 4/5 Emily... then after another 5 named storms we had cat 5 Katrina... then after another 5 named storms we had category 5 Rita... and now 5 named storms have already passed since then... Will Wilma be the next cat 5? scary... RoswellAtup
5 names after Rita would actually be Beta (23rd named storm). Emily was the 5th named storm, Katrina the 11th and Rita the 17th. Wilma would be the 21st if it develops. CrazyC83 03:50, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I doubt it. I don't think we'll have any more of those since it's October. --Revolución (talk) 02:06, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It's still possible. Mitch and Hattie were both Cat 5 in October. It could also be in the range of Dennis and Emily. --69.86.16.61 02:22, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
If it hits the Caribbean, look out! That body of water is still extremely warm and hasn't really been touched since Emily, so it is just fuel waiting for the fire...That would seem unthinkable - four Category 5 storms this season (assuming Emily is upgraded)? Also Hattie and Mitch were both Category 5 in the last week of October, and Lenny was just below that in mid-November! CrazyC83 03:42, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The GFDL model confirms our fears...takes this blob to 910 mb and 145 knots en route to Central America - looks like another Mitch (God forbid!)... CrazyC83 04:01, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That is scary! RoswellAtup
The models said that about another invest this season that didn't develop, or was weak. The West Pacific had ten Category 5s in 1997. The Atlantic probably won't even come close for another 100,000 years. Isa, Nestor, Rosie, Winnie, Oliwa, Ginger, Ivan, Joan, Keith, Paka. Bing was nearly a 5. The most storms of super typhoon intensity (130 kt Cat. 4 and up) in the Atlantic (crossing the designation systems here) is four (this year). The West Pacific had 11 that season. This Atlantic season is pitiful compared to that. My point is that it could have been much worse this season than it actually was. I shudder to think about what would happen if the Atlantic got as active as the West Pacific. All coastlines south of Nova Scotia would seise to exist. I still think there's hope that Jamaica's mountains will destroy the system before it develops. That said, we said the same thing about the disturbance that became Stan. You saw how that turned out.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 05:01, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The bit about the other invest that didn't develop...exactly what I was thinking. That was 92L in the September Archive: "Look at the GFDL computer model. Category 5 hurricane Nate by next week! [7] CrazyC83 20:12, 1 September 2005 (UTC)" But really, that was right off Africa and at a low lattitude. This one has favorable conditions; ~85ºF SSTs, low shear... -- RattleMan 05:04, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

From the NHC:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST WEST OF JAMAICA.AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS WHICH IS ALREADY AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE WARM WATERS BEWTEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A HURRICANE.

Looks like we might have Wilma soon. tdwuhs

We gotta get Tropical Depression Twenty-Four first.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 19:53, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Tropical Depression 24[edit]

We now have tropical depression 24... RoswellAtup

Yes we do and Grand Cayman could be in trouble. NHC says the 2005 hurricane list could be completely exhauseted by Sunday. Wow, this is incredible.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:50, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This could be REALLY bad for Central America, already reeling from Stan - can they take a much, much stronger storm? We could be looking at a Category 4 or 5 hurricane by midweek! CrazyC83 23:09, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Don't put too much stock in the GFDL prediction. GFS doesn't even bring 24 to hurricane strength. The NHC forecast calls for the storm to turn away from Central America (and towards us :( ).
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:34, 15 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
You do that "IT COULD BE THE BIG ONE!" thing for almost every single storm. You never know when it's real or not. Mike H (Talking is hot) 00:29, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I blame the computer model intensity forecasts; I mean, why not just adjust the numbers downwards permanently within the models? I think the models have overshot developing systems all the time; it feels like every storm that even had a chance to get to category 2 was forecast to Cat 4+ by either the SHIPS or the GFDL models early on. Maybe they had a 2005 factor thrown in or something. (Is there an article on these models somewhere?) AySz88^-^ 02:16, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Even a Category 1 hurricane could be devastating in Guatemala right now, which still hasn't recovered from Stan. The fact is, even those forecasts that don't take Wilma to Cat 5 do take it to a Cat 2 or 3 before landfall. The Caribbean is both warm and low-shear and will remain so, so even Cat 5 for Wilma is not out of the question. --69.86.16.61 02:18, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

ATD24-N should be taken very seriously. It will likely reach cat 1 hurricane status in 72 hours, and still be over open, warm, water. Stirling Newberry - Bopnews 02:33, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The good news is that the POES SSTS map shows that temps are in the 27-29 deg. C range in the path of this thing... not 30+ like we saw for Katrina and Rita. I don't think these lower SSTS's are going to let this thing get to CAT 3 any time soon... and CAT 4 - 5 may be out of the question. And with autumn cold fronts pushing in from the northwest over the mainland US, this thing will hopefully get shoved out to the northeast pretty fast. Of course, this is part of that big trough that's been out in the western Atlantic for a long time... it was just too far south to get cleaned out by the last advancing front. --Mm35173 03:00, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Sigh...new NHC track turns it more toward me in SW FL...I don't like that, and hearing that this may turn NE faster than the original NHC track isn't all that good either... - Bladeswin 03:10, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
AySz88, you're kind of right about the models, however I do remember a time when the models were forecasting Katrina to make landfall near St. Marks, Florida as a Category 2 storm.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 06:01, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Well, there's always the selective memory thing; no one ever pays attention when the models spit out something low early on! (Slightly offtopic, would it be useful to have an article somewhere about the hurricane models and their reliability?) AySz88^-^ 17:08, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Possibly. There may not be much information on that though.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:14, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Could it be the storm that dr. gray was talking about that would become a major hurricane status? RoswellAtup
Sigh, looks like another Florida hurricane on the horizon. Any other time I would agree with that assessment as far as SST goes, but Vince reached Cat 1 stregth over 23-24 deg C water, so I won't take anything for granted. Could the panhandle get it's third major hurricane in 13 months? That's way too many in my book. --Holderca1 13:06, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It could hit the West Coast of FL also, right around where I live, depending on how much of a turn it takes. No one needs a hurricane, but it looks that it will hit somewhere. --CFIF 13:32, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It could do damn near anything at this point. Right now, the NHC forcast puts it between Panama City and St. Marks.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:59, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Right now, I see three possible scenarios out of this storm.

1) Maintains a straight trajectory, and slams into Central America or the Yucatan (and possibly a second landfall in northern Mexico or Texas), similar to Emily.

2) Recurving late and moving north towards western Cuba and eventually the Florida Panhandle, similar to Dennis, or (in an unlikely scenario) sweeping through the Yucatan Channel en route for the central Gulf Coast (likely as a monster), although it has to be lined up perfectly for such to happen.

3) Recurving early, moving north-northeast towards eastern Cuba and into the Florida Straits, brushing southeast Florida and then either heading out to sea or swinging back towards the US East Coast.

CrazyC83 17:37, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Scenario 2 seem the most likely, that's what the NHC is predicting.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:03, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

NHC 5pm 5-day track bumps it a little to the west between Cuba and the Yucatan, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Yikes! —BazookaJoe 20:52, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That would have it following the Gulf Loop Current and Eddy Vortex. Only two hurricanes have done that so far this year... One guess which two. I suppose at this point the best thing that could (reasonably) happen is that it strike the Florida Panhandle as a Cat 2. --69.86.16.61 20:58, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
No, bad! West is the wrong way. No offense to Florida, but another hurricane might make southeast Louisiana uninhabitable for years. Dry air is inhibiting development slightly, that's the reason it's not Wilma yet, but NHC says that won't last long. At least there's not much left to destroy in Louisiana and Mississippi.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:26, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I agree. Florida can deal with a weak hurricane. Even a Cat 1 in Louisiana or Mississippi at this point would be catastrophic, and it would be no less disastrous if it didn't turn and instead hit Guatemala. --69.86.16.61 03:38, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It's also worth mentioning that a lot of Pensacola hasn't even bothered to start rebuilding after Ivan. With what we've got, what's the point? Mike H (Talking is hot) 21:48, 16 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The only good scenario right now, it seems, is quick dissipation. One other possibility I am thinking is that it crosses central Cuba while moving north-northeast, slips past the Florida Strait (brushing the extreme southeast) while over the Bahamas, and either going out to sea (with a northeast turn) or coming up to the Eastern Seaboard (with no turn). CrazyC83 00:47, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Hmmm, it looks like it is not getting any better... i don't think this one will become wilma... RoswellAtup
Can you stop for once just stop making these damn comments you idiot?! Why would you want this to strengthen, deliberately using "better" as if strengthening were a good thing. Look at Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Stan, caused massive death and you are wishing for more? --Revolución (talk) 01:36, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Revolución, please, be civil and no personal attacks. -- NSLE | Talk 01:39, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe it looks like TD24 is trying to bide its time out there...it knows that it wants to follow in the shoes of Katrina and Rita, but is waiting for an opportunity? Maybe we'll get lucky and it will dissipate before it gets the chance? I think it will either dissipate unnamed or become a major hurricane - there isn't a middle ground here. CrazyC83 02:50, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The NHC says SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TONIGHT... That's not good. Basically, it's reorganizing to be a much more potent but compact system. Also, every single forecast now names it Wilma by noon tomorrow so not naming at this point seems highly unlikely. It's also shifted further west, just brushing the Yucatan on the center of the projection. Of course, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT. --69.86.16.61 03:34, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Considering what the Yucatán has already received from Emily and Stan, the current forecast track cannot be good... -- NSLE | Talk 07:32, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Tropical Storm Wilma[edit]

It is now tropical storm wilma RoswellAtup

Welcome Wilma, almost a month ahead of the old record for 1933! -- NSLE | Talk 08:58, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

We are the record, now. After all, one more hurricane (and one less tropical storm) than 1933 means that 2005 is officially the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. --69.86.16.61 11:14, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
No, that technically isn't correct. The most active season says nothing about the strength of the storms, just the quantity. There are other measurements for number and intensity, like ACE, most hurricanes in a season, ect...--Holderca1 11:31, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Latest model runs are shifting left - this is not good news. Stirling Newberry - Bopnews 12:27, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

At this point, it is going to affect land. So any shifting of the forecast in any direction is not good news. --Holderca1 12:40, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This storm does not warrant an article split yet, please refrain from creating one until it does. As far as we know it could make landfall in Honduras as a weak tropical storm. --Holderca1 15:24, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Wow, Wilma in the middle of October. This is going to be a bad day for somebody, the question is who? NHC now says that it will scrape the Yucatan Peninsula just short of a major hurricane and head up toward the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The discussion said that confidence in this prediction is low and the track could shift to the right back towards Florida. All depends on that high over Rita's landfall area. No offense to Florida, but they can take a Category 1 or even a small Category 2 without much heartbreak, Honduras however would be in deep kimshe with even a Category 1. The Yucatan is even tougher that Florida (look how they weathered Emily) so not much worried about them. I'm mostly concerned about our precious gas off that coast. There's not much left to destroy in southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi, however another hurricane hit could make New Orleans uninhabitable for years. We've got a lot of places on the Gulf coast still licking their wounds (Punta Gorda, Gulf Shores/Pensacola, New Orleans, Port Arthur). The Gulf coast has been hit by 14 hurricanes in the past ten years, we don't need 15.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 15:49, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Please don't let it hit here! We definitely don't need another storm here! (I live in southeast Louisiana!!!) PenguinCDF 16:10, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
If it hits Tampa, the results could be catastrophic; we learned from a possible threat from Charley last year that Tampa simply is not ready for a sizable hurricane making landfall in the Bay. Mike H (Talking is hot) 19:14, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Judging from the latest NHC advisory, it seems like Wilma may make a beeline for Florida once it turns around. That aint good, no matter who it hits. I'm keepin an eye on this one. - Bladeswin 22:04, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Now it looks like the NHC is predicting his one could be a Category 3! Yikes! Another major hurricane? What will the Gulf Coast of the US and Mexico look like after this season? tdwuhs

NHC is forecasting it to weaken after it leaves the Yucatan. Wind shear is expected to increase as it moves through the Gulf. It could be down to a Category 1 before landfall occurs (where ever that is).
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:33, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I hope it would be the last storm of the season. RoswellAtup

I'd actually like to see an Alpha at least as long as it's a fish-spinner. --69.86.16.61 03:43, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
If, hopefully not, another storm does arise I would like to use the rest of the Alphabet. Q, U, X, Y,Z. Quincy, Uma, Xerxes, Yasmin, Zack
From the original list: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Floyd, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lenny, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma... all have reached hurricane status except for Tammy! Provided that Wilma will become a hurricane on tuesday. Should the WMO revamp this list? RoswellAtup
I have no clue what you are saying here. --Golbez 05:18, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
At some point in the history of this list, all names except Tammy, Wilma (so far), Franklin and Lee have reached hurricane strength in a hurricane season (not necessarily 2005). Not that that means anything. There has never been a destructive Hurricane Bret, for example. --69.86.16.61 11:29, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
1993's Hurricane Bret merged with some extratropical system and killed over 150 in Venezuela, and 1999's Bret was a Category 4 hurricane that made landfall in a desolete part of South Texas... CrazyC83 14:52, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
One was extratropical (would you call Tammy destructive? I don't think so) and the other, while strong, was not destructive. The case rests. --69.86.16.61 21:50, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The same can be said for pretty much all the lists, so not really sure where this is going. Also, Franklin and Lee have never reached hurricane strength, this is the first year they have been used.--Holderca1 13:10, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
They oughta retire the whole list, because if the naming system were to start in 1900... the 1933 season and the 1969 season will use this particular list... is it cursed or something? bad joke there... (",) RoswellAtup
Article split[edit]

The seperate article keeps getting revived. The worst part about it is that it is just a copy and past of the main article. No surprise considering there is not much on the storm yet. Does any one have any valid reasons why this storm should have its own article at this point in time? I think the earliest we have started an article was with Rita when it was a 70 mph tropical storm hours away from the Keys. Wilma is moving so slowly that it is not forecast to even reach the Yucatan until Friday or Saturday. --Holderca1 18:17, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Preventing a separate article might be unavoidable, but there really shouldn't be one unless Wilma becomes a notable storm. Even though Wilma looks like it could become a very serious storm, Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. --tomf688{talk} 18:45, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It is too early! It's not even a hurricane, we should wait until then at least. --Revolución (talk) 19:38, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Well, maybe when confidence in the predictions becomes stronger.Again, Rita was still a Tropical Storm when we made an article, and this *may* still be a Tropical Storm when it hits the Yucatan. --168.229.26.217 20:48, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
While I agree that a Wilma article will eventually be required based on the forecast. Based on that forecast it won't be affecting land until Friday. So the earliest that we will need an article is probably late Wednesday or Thursday since there will be little (if any) additional information that will be in the split article that won't be in the main article until that time. --Holderca1 20:56, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
A article now is ridiculous. It's only notablity is that it's the 21st storm of the season, that's it. Not a justification for an article.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:30, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I am in the path of this storm, living in La Ceiba in Honduras. People are worried here and in the Bay Islands. There have been (word of mouth) reports of evacuations of the river area, which is a poor area. How will it be determined when/if this storm gets an article of its own? It looks like it will hit here quite quicklySqueakBox 23:43, 17 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It should only get a separate article when there is more to write about. It should NOT get a separate article because we think (or even know) someday there will be more to write about. Having a separate article doesn't help in keeping more up-to-date information about the storm or in getting information to people quickly: in fact it hurts, since (1) the exact same information (currently word-for-word identical) must be shown in each and (2) since the {{HurricaneWarning}} warning is left off people might think that wikipedia is a crystal ball (whereas we all know only the NHC and WMO are crystal balls). Jdorje 02:56, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It should have a separate article, because there won't be any Wilmas any time soon (2011? No way we get that coincidence). Also, it is expected to intensify, so maybe it is now the time to have the {{seemain}} in the season article. Titoxd(?!?) 03:01, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
There won't be a Philippe any time soon either. I don't see anyone writing an article for that, it even reached hurricane strength. Just because it is the only time a name has been used is not a good reason for its own article. That is already mentioned on the main article anyway. The latest projection almost makes it look like Wilma will never make landfall. --Holderca1 03:15, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It's still a bit too early, although the thought of a separate article should be held. It will likely be necessary within 48-72 hours... CrazyC83 14:49, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Now Wilma is a cat. 1 hurricane and should become a major one within 24 hours! It's heading for Florida but that could change also. This is a new record season. New information is comming all the time, I think it would be time to start up a separate Wilma artcile very soon. Stry 16:15, 18 October 2005 UTC
What I find amazing is that nobody that has been asking for a seperate article has added much to the Wilma section in the main article. Are you holding out valuable information for the seperate article? If you are simply just going to do a copy and paste to the new article, it doesn't warrant a seperate article. --Holderca1 18:40, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Tito. I HATE that template with hot-blooded passion. That is the most annoying template. For one, it blends with the article, it needs to stand out, like the link we have set up now. Two, it is damned hard to change. It screws up the spacing. I just hate it. I went on a crusade several weeks ago to remove it from the hurricane articles. That template either needs to be changed or removed. The way it is now, it just looks like every other link in the article, it is added to storms of notability and therefore it needs to look...notable.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 21:49, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not a fan of the {{seemain}} template either, because of all its hidden comments it ruins articles I'm trying to translate. So I agree with you on that one. However, the point is now moot, the article is split. Titoxd(?!?) 05:31, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I am thinking of starting it up, it is undergoing rapid intensification...anyone agree or disagree? CrazyC83 00:57, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Is there that much more information available? Is there any news out of Mexico, Cuba, or Florida on preparation? --Holderca1 01:22, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Yes. 10 have died in Haiti mudslides, 10,000 are prepared to evacuate in Honduras, 5,200 have already evacuated in Cuba where 255 homes have been damaged, and Florida Keys will evacuate Thursday (80,000 people) ... SargeAbernathy 01:42, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Hurricane Wilma[edit]

As of the 11 am advisory, now a Cat 1. --Holderca1 14:58, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Could someone explain the reason that we are not able to have a seperate article for Hurricane Wilma - it is a current event and people who are not experts on hurricanes would be interested in it... I tried putting a current event tag on the redirect but that didn't work so an article entitled 'Hurricane Wilma' will not appear in current events.
I have never known anyone to browse current events using a category. It's a current event not yet worthy of its own article. --Golbez 18:20, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Sending a Recon aircraft to Wilma now - any bets that it will be a Category 2 by 5:00 pm? I'm thinking by tomorrow afternoon, we'll have a Category 4 hurricane on our hands... CrazyC83 19:07, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I am also expecting the warnings for Honduras to be dropped as it seems highly unlikely that tropical storm force winds will hit. --Holderca1 19:12, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The 5 PM Discussion at the NHC site says they expect it to peak at Category 4 (115 kt).Would weaken considerably afterward though.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 21:22, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Could still be a two when it hits the Everglades (or wherever it ends up hitting). High forward speed in a sparsely populated area: if it does that then we may not have that much to worry about.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 21:55, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
What the NHC is saying right now looks like a weak Cat 3 at landfall, not a Cat 2. Also, high forward speed can be a bad thing over low-lying areas in SW Florida as it greatly increases storm surge. --69.86.16.61 22:06, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

My personal prediction - no Florida landfall (brushes about 60 miles to the southeast, but some effects felt in SE Florida) but rapid intensification to a Category 5 before making landfall in Cuba as such. Then she'll maintain a north-northeast track before making landfall in the mid-Atlantic as a Category 2 or 3 storm. CrazyC83 22:12, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, a couple models are actually predicting no landfall by going through the Yucatan Channel then curving to go through the Florida Straits.--Holderca1 22:23, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I'm sticking with the NHC forecast. They're the experts.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 00:03, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think the 8 pm intensity update is more than they were bargaining for in the 5 pm Discussion.Category 2 now...3 tonight?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 23:50, 18 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]


From the 8pm advisory:

"WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION"

Uh-oh, that's always bad. Always. This could potentially suck.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 00:00, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, this looks like Wilma is outdoing the estimates considerably. Just at the 5 pm advisory they were saying that it could be a Category 3 by Thursday. Now they're saying that it could be a Cat 3 tonight. After only three hours. This is BAD. --69.86.16.61 00:05, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The real story here is the pressure drops. 970 at 5:00 and 954 at 7:30 (by way of recon report). I don't even need to caption that one - all of us here understand. The Great Zo 00:16, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The forecast had it at 70 kt at 5:00 and said it would reach 90 kt by 5 AM Wednesday and 100 kt (Cat 3) at 5 PM Wednesday.But passing 85 kt in the first three hours of the 12 in which it was forecast to go from 70 to 90 was probably NOT anticipated.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 00:22, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Do I have a right to be worried that this will be as strong as Katrina? I may be jumping the gun here, but it is posible, right? --Freiberg 00:58, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I like to look at the NHC's Wind Chart and see how the hurricane is doing compared to what they predicted. The one I am looking at now was updated at 11:00 AM EDT, and the upper 10% line called for wind speeds of 100 MPH in 12 hours. Well, it hasn't been 12 hours yet, and it's already hit that mark. I remember watching Katrina and Rita consistently running with the upper 10% probability. If this is doing the same, you can only know what'll happen. —BazookaJoe 01:05, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Which is why I usually make my predictions well above the NHC line if the storm is coming into a deep-strengthening situation...for some reason we have all done better than the NHC on catching the potential for rapid intensification...I'm thinking by this time tomorrow, we'll have yet another Category 5 monster on our hands... CrazyC83 01:10, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
With 110 mph winds 12 hours after that wind speed forecast was made, Wilma has exceeded even the upper 10% line. Wilma will almost certainly be Category 4 by this time tomorrow, possibly Category 5. Three Category 5s in one season, though... It would be just too much. --69.86.16.61 02:42, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Well, it is nearing that time to make a separate article for Wilma. It is undergoing rapid intensification, 10 victims have died in haiti due to mudslides, 255 homes damaged in Cuba where 5,200 have been evacuated, nearly ten thousand in Honduras prepared for evacuations, and 80,000 in the Florida Keys prepared to evacuate. SargeAbernathy 01:38, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

We could very well have a CAT5 on our hands in the coming day or two, as Rita and Katrina were not at first suspected of reaching that mark either. However, is it just me, or does this season's hurricanes appear to have winds not exactly proportional to what we should expect with the pressure. At 897 mb, Rita had 175 mph winds, while the 908 mb(I believe)Camille had 190 mph winds. Hell, Andrew had 122 mb as a 165 mph CAT5 and Katrina was a CAT4 for a while at a lower pressure. At first when Katrina had the 140 mb pressure and 115 mph winds, I was alarmed, but the winds did eventually catch up to 145 mph or so hours afterwards. I tend to think this could be because the systems were far bigger than Andrew and Camille. The NHC in my opinion tries not to put CAT5's as a prediction because of panic and in case it does not ever reach that, but this season has been very odd. Wilma is RAPIDLY intensifying and probabbly will be CAT3 by 11 PM or 2 AM advisory. Can you imagine 6 retired storms in one season? Although I am skeptical about the NHC retiring too many storm names, they might just overlook Emily that would have been retired had this been any other season. Watch out...CAT5 Wilma may soon be, however, it WILL NOT reach the USA as that. The great kawa 03:51, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The reason for the disproportionate windspeed is three-fold. One, after rapid deepening like this it takes time before the winds catch up with the pressure. Two, Andrew and Camille were very small hurricanes whereas all of the recent intense hurricanes have been rather large. And three, all surface wind measurements from before around 1995 are just guesses (see dropsonde). Jdorje 05:54, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I agree with you, although I am sure they won't overlook any retired names, they'll retire 6, 7, 8, even 9 names if they have to (including Greek letters if necessary). CrazyC83 04:17, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Discussion #14,just posted by the NHC after Wilma's winds reached 110 mph,states:
WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE.
Is that the hurricane version of the "evil eye"?
AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
125 Kt is the forecast peak intensity,though...higher than they thought a few hours ago but we'll see if that's as far as it goes.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 02:47, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Rita and Katrina, watch out, it seems. Please let Wilma die off somehow... -- NSLE (Communicate!) <Contribs> 02:51, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Pinhole eye... remind you of Hurricane Gilbert? Let's hope it only bottoms out in the 900's mb. —BazookaJoe 02:56, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
We should always be careful in trying to phrase things coz someone with a very short fuse will surely react.

945 mb, when Katrina was at 940 mb it went up to 145 mph winds!!! This is getting serious, by this time tomorrow the chances of a CAT4 are probably over 90%! Even the Weather Channel is saying it may peak at CAT5 intensity, as did FOXNews, and accuweather.com. Just wait, by the 5 am advisory we may even have a CAT4, especially juging from the STILL plummeting pressure! The great kawa 03:51, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Unbelievable!!! We have a major CAT5 on our hands with a pressure of 901 mb and wind speeds near 180 mph as just reported by The Weather Channel at 12:53 EDT. This has to be the quickest drop in pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin at least. This is unprecedented. This may beat Rita as most powerful of season. God speed to the Talk page!!!!!!! None of us could have imagined this. The great kawa 04:55, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Major Hurricane Wilma[edit]

Vortex data message just indicated pressure of 901 MB, max flight level winds of 162 knots, and a closed eye of 4 NM. I honestly think that my brain was just ripped out and smashed to the floor. The Great Zo 04:50, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Yikes! Three CAT 5's!? Oh, my! I can't believe this, its just to surreal. User:tdwuhs

Major Hurricane Wilma, skipping Cat 3 intensity. We have a rare 1 o'clock update, and there's set to be an intermediate 2am one as well... -- NSLE

(Communicate!) <Contribs> 05:15, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I screwed up about last windspeed, it is CAT4 hurricane w/ max sustained winds of 150mph, nontheless impressive! Plus it was priceless to see the look on Warren Madden's (Weather Channel) face after this thing exploded.
WILMA IS NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. from the NHC. Yikes. -- NSLE (Communicate!) <Contribs> 05:22, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I don't wish this storm on anybody (I live in southeast Louisiana, enough said)... but let it hit anywhere but here!!! Fred must've really ticked off Wilma, because she's just exploded and ready to go "Bamm Bamm" on whomever she comes across! </obligatory Flintstones reference> PenguinCDF 05:43, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I'm speechless... at cat4 it is 901 mb??? unbelievable! those pressures in that category are only attained in the West Pacific... how far will it fall down more? It can probably outpace Rita's record of 897. RoswellAtup
Are? You? Joking? That's just—! This is—! My "brain just ripped out and smashed to the floor" indeed! This is incredible! This is more than incredible! Oh, why does the English language fail me now! —BazookaJoe 05:56, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The Atlantic sure has gone insane!!! and we thought 2004 was that bad. RoswellAtup
Wilma at Category 5[edit]
UPDATE
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA

HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

Holy ---------------ing --------------- shit this is insane. Nobody thought we'd beat Katrina. Katrina was already one of the most intense. Then came Rita. Now look at Wilma! Holy shit! We jinxed it. E. Brown said "let's just hope that bob rulz's prediction stands." But omfg this is unnatural. bob rulz 06:42, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Here's some various records it's achieved
  • 28th ever Cat-5 storm in the Atlantic
  • tie-2nd lowest pressure ever in the Atlantic
  • 1st strongest storm in the Atlantic in 2005
  • 3rd-latest Cat-5 in the Atlantic (Rita was 5th-latest)
  • First occurrence of three Cat-5 storms in the same season
  • First occurrence of five Cat-5 storms within three seasons
  • 2005 now holds the record for three of the six strongest Atlantic storms ever
The Great Zo 06:46, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Poink! Now category 5! the third one this season... this doesn't normally happen, we even have more category 5s than in the western pacific this year! how freaky can you get? This one is so scary... will NHC issue another special advisory to update hurricane Wilma's intensity? RoswellAtup
Is it just me or does the NHC refuse to raise the wind speeds of any hurricane beyond 175 mph. Is this just a coincidence or are the winds really 175 mph? Mitch, Allen, and Camille (and others) all had higher wind speeds but far higher pressures, and they all are rather old nowadays. Is it new technology or am I paranoid that the NHC puts the line at 175 mph?
Yeah, I noticed that discrepancy too... nonetheless, Wilma's pressure has dropped to 884... the lowest ever in the Atlantic, but it's winds are still 150 kts. I also agree that the NHC is perhaps concealing the real wind measurements... just a hunch though RoswellAtup
Holy everloving crap! The Weather Channel claims that they have the 5AM advisory in in advance, and say that it puts the pressure at 884 mb! --Patteroast 08:42, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Looks like we have Gilbert's big sister!!! I thought that Wilma "could" become a CAT5 hurricane, but to beat Gilbert! Hell, I didn't think it would be the Labor Day Storm. And what's up with the winds, shouldn't they be higher? And as for a name, I propose WTF Wilma b/c it went from a mere CAT1 w/ 80 mph winds to a the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record (pending calibration)!!! The great kawa 09:13, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]


From tropical storm to Category 5 in only 16 hours? Incredible! But that 884 millibar reading is unbelievable, and, like the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, Wilma has an insanely small eye for such a powerful storm, only about five miles in diameter (for comparison, the Labor Day hurricane's eye was about eight miles wide and 1992's Andrew's eye was about 12 miles wide upon Florida landfall). B.Wind 11:14, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Holy crap, and dropped 100 mb in pressure in 24 hours, I have never seen intensification like this. I thought this was October. --Holderca1 11:29, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I went to bed last night knowing about a Tropical Storm Wilma... I woke up in the UK this morning hearing Category 4, and found Category 5 by the time I was at college... I can not think of words to describe my amazement when I heard this morning, my jaw dropped through the floor... - JVG 11:37, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Who added that data that 2005 is the first time to have most consecutive named storms reaching hurricanes at 6? I'll have you know that 1950 had 7 consecutive hurricanes from ABLE to GEORGE... then why did he claim that the record is beaten in this year? RoswellAtup

I remember reading years ago,I think in William Safire's "On Language" column,that Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes (I thought...except that the highest category on this list had not yet been recorded in reality) had been allocated the descriptive adjectives "incredible" and "inconceivable" (Safire went on to point at the difference,something you can imagine but not believe is true,compared to something you can't even imagine).This season evokes the Princess Bride movie..."Inconceivable!"..."You keep using that word...I don't think it means what you think it means!" 175 mph storm devastates New Orleans,and is third most intense storm of the season.Inconceivable?

(Memo to the Greek fraternity/sorority...PLEASE don't any of you make Katrina fourth most intense!!)--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 13:12, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

You know, with those fraternities and sororities working together, they just might have the combined power to do so - a bunch of Category 2's or 3's may make a Category 5... CrazyC83 14:40, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
What a storm does over open waters and what it makes landfall are two entirely different things. Thank God that none of these monsters have made landfall at peak intensity or New Orleans would be the Bay of Pontchartrain now. --Holderca1 14:05, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

What are the records for rate of intensification? From 11 pm to 1 am, the pressure dropped 44 mb, a remarkable 22 mb/hr. From 5 pm to 5 am, it dropped 86 mb, for an average rate of 7.2 mb/hr over a 12 hour period. --Holderca1 13:34, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Calibrated recon data as of the 8:00 AM advisory gives a pressure of 882 MB. Etch that number into your brain - that sure as hell better be a record for a long, long time.
Oddly, the next recon mission isn't scheduled until early this afternoon. The Great Zo 13:35, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
(Maybe it'll take that long to find a willing recon crew?)The two little milestones it's just short of are 180 mph (breaking the windspeed tie with Katrina and Rita) and becoming the first Atlantic storm under 26 InHg.I wonder if the 11 AM advisory will record either,or if theoretical limits and eyewall replacement cycles mean we've seen the strongest this storm will be.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 13:41, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
What storm are you refering to that dropped below 26? Also, I think the pressure has peaked but I don't think the winds have. I wouldn't be surprised to see the next advisory with 190 mph winds. That wind speed and that pressure just don't make sense as it is right now. --Holderca1 13:57, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It hasn't dropped below 26 but at 26.05 is very very close,which is why I said it was just short of becoming the first to do it.I hope nobody's out in a boat or ship under those winds!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 14:02, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Okay, I misread what you wrote, I thought you said another storm had dropped below 26. Without a recon mission until this afternoon. We may never know if it did or not. --Holderca1 14:08, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This is just amazing!!! I go to bed with a 945 mb Category 2 (although questionable - probably much stronger at 11:00 pm last night), and wake up with this!!! Although I do think this will bob up and down, Super Typhoon Tip had better be scared - she'll have more than one chance at dropping into the 860s! CrazyC83 14:25, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The fact that no storm this year had an advisory intensity of over 175 MPH (150 knots) is a very good observation and certainly a good question to be asking. I've love to know the answers as well. Even Mitch, which was a recent storm, was declared up to 155 knots, despite having a pressure of "only" 905 MB.
A second thing I've been pondering is that when Katrina and Rita formed, they peaked out despite still being in basically good intensification conditions... and so I wondered what kind of structural differences it would take to deepen a storm beyond those two. I looked up some Gilbert images and found evidence of that "pinhole eye", which isn't even as dramatic (or small) as Wilma's. I think I found my answer - somehow, these twice-in-history sub-890 hurricanes manage to maintain an eye of incredibly small size. The Great Zo 14:30, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The Labor Day hurricane of 1935 reached 892 mb despite only peaking at 160 mph (although that was probably underestimated). I'd say this could easily be a 190 mph or even 200 mph storm...it's like a mammoth F3 tornado out there! CrazyC83 14:38, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
That was 1935, I don't think the technology existed to even measure wind speeds approaching 200 mph without equipment breaking. --Holderca1 14:41, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Still 175 mph and 882 mb at 11 am advisory. --Holderca1 14:44, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Only statistical change was that hurricane force winds are now extending further out from the center,hard to tell if that means it's getting more diffuse and about to weaken for eyewall replacement,or just extending the same power more widely.Turns out the "incredible"/"inconceivable" difference I mentioned above was between F5 and F6 tornadoes (memo to Wilma:please don't spawn any of either near my Florida relatives!)--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 14:52, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I think the NHC don't want to change the strength without another investigation. Estimates don't work very well at such high intensities. Also, the extension of hurricane force winds is an expected development - 50 miles is more average for a powerful hurricane; 15 miles seemed like it was from when Wilma was a Cat 1/2. --143.228.129.13 15:09, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Unbelievable. I'm speechless. --Revolución (talk) 16:02, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Everyone talks about the elusive 890's millibar club, well Wilma could (I don't think it will, but I didn't think this would beat Gilbert either) join the top secret 870's club, and hang out with Tip and Chaba. This is unreal, though I am very skeptical about maximum sustained winds remaing at 175 mph, that seems to be the point where the NHC refuses to go any further. Would Camille have peaked at 175 mph had she formed this season? The great kawa 17:33, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

It won't on this run, it went back to 900mb and 165 mph (although still a Category 5 monster). It must be starting an eyewall cycle, but it might come back down again. CrazyC83 18:13, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The craziest thing is that while Katrina and Rita became intense storms in the Gulf, this storm hasn't even entered the Gulf yet! --Revolución (talk) 18:26, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

They actually believe that the Gulf would weaken Wilma,since the waters it's over now are warmer.If the Loop Current is still there,they don't expect Wilma to get that far north.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 18:37, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Whoa, what happened, big change in the models since the last NHC discussion. Half of them now project it to hit the Yucatan then move back into the Caribbean and meander there. [1] --Holderca1 19:26, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That would spare Florida, but it would be completely catastrophic for southern Mexico and Central America, already devastated by Hurricane Stan, and this is much, much worse...this would be a repeat of Hurricane Mitch, and we know how that turned out... CrazyC83 19:59, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I just turned on the Weather Channel and they're still listing winds at 165 mph, but pressure at 892!!! It's undergoing eyewall replacement and may restrengthen during the next 12-24 hours.

The great kawa 20:12, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

NHC says winds down to 160,but the recon aircraft's 892 mb means that the previous 900 estimate may have been wrong.Now will it get stronger again or has it peaked?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 21:05, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Rofl, I love Franklin. From the 5pm discussion: 

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

--Golbez 21:13, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The discussion also says that it's expected to go down to 135 kt during eyewall replacement and then back up to 145 (not all the way to peak).So if it revisits its full earlier strength,it's been underestimated again.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 21:16, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

The 11 PM discussion repeats this forecast...it's now down to 135 kt/155 mph (top end of cat 4) and not expected to get past 145 kt again...all alternate scenarios suggest weaker possibilities.So it may have peaked.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 03:23, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Don't count on it. Once it's finished with the Yucatan, it will probably intensify again. Devahn58 03:42, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It's 9:16 AM on Thursday morning and I'm just staring at the satellite loop, and thinking to myself... uhhh... it's GOING to curve... right? Maybe? Uh... (can you tell I'm a bit concerned for the well-being of the track forecast?) The Great Zo 13:17, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The beasts of this season seem to be one-upping each other: Katrina stronger than Ivan, Rita stronger than Katrina, Wilma stronger than Rita. At this rate, Hurricane Beta's going to have an 869 mb pressure. Wilma-882 mb, Rita-897 mb, Katrina-902 mb. God! This is insane. When hurricanes compete, you lose. This season seems more like a Western Pacific season than an Atlantic season.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 14:08, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
You could do that with just this season's storms - Emily stronger than Dennis, Katrina stronger than Emily, Rita stronger than Katrina, Wilma stronger than Rita. And ANY of them would have been an exceptionally strong storm for any season. --168.229.26.50 14:41, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Odd pattern: but if there were to be tropical depression 30... would it become a category 5 monster? Well tropical depression 12 strengthened to cat. 5 Katrina plus another 6 systems.. tropical depression 18 strengthened to cat. 5 Rita, plus another 6 systems... tropical depression 24 strengthened to cat. 5 wilma... hmmm pure coincidence? RoswellAtup
Tropical Depression 6 (Franklin) didn't reach Category 5 - or, for that matter, Category 1, though... CrazyC83 04:41, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Yes. Yes, it is pure coincidence. Nature doesn't care how many storms there have been. The first category 5 this year was the K storm. The first category 5 storm in 1992 was the A storm. --Golbez 03:22, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Wilma landfall[edit]

Yet another amazing thing: Wilma and Gilbert, the two strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded (though admittedly records only go back a few decades at best) might end up making landfall in the exact same location. Jdorje 04:19, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Well, even if they do make a same first landfall location, their second landfall locations would be fairly different -Tcwd (talk) 20:20, 20 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
NOAA water vapor satellite picture of Hurricane Wilma over Cozumel Island, Mexico on October 21, 2005.

Throw in Emily of 2005 and you have quite a Cozumel/Cancun trifecta. B.Wind 18:36, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

WE HAVE LANDFALL!

Now I know why we don't have pics on the discussion pages -- too much of a nuisance to get it to "look right." But the full-size version of the WV pic was most impressive and I had to share. B.Wind 20:49, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I wish some people would wait more than 12 seconds before reverting a work in progress... B.Wind 16:45, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Then do all your work in one edit. The show preview button is your friend. --Holderca1 18:04, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]


4th Landfall[edit]

I have a question for the terminologists. Suppose the center of Wilma's eye crosses Lake Okeechobee. When the center goes over land on the other side, would that make it Wilma's fourth landfall? B.Wind 08:46, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think they count freshwater bodies of water like Okeechobee. Besides, from what I've seen, the eye appears to be bigger than the lake. Donovan Ravenhull 14:38, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It's a moot point -- the center of the eye passed south of the lake. B.Wind (at a downtown Miami computer) 17:22, 26 October 2005 (UTC)
Of course a 4th landfall is possible - in Nova Scotia... CrazyC83 16:57, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
ACE calcs[edit]

Noticed someone had updated the ACE numbers for Wilma, the calculations were off a bit. Posting a table below with the numbers for each advisory. The incorrect numbers that were posted were higher than the actual numbers so I suspect that the individual either included intermediate advisories or used wind speeds in mph. These calcs use wind speeds in knots from the full advisories. --Holderca1 15:24, 19 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
7 17 Oct 5 am EDT 35 0.1225
8   11 am EDT 40 0.16
9   5 pm EDT 45 0.2025
10   11 pm EDT 55 0.3025
11 18 Oct 5 am EDT 60 0.36
12   11 am EDT 65 0.4225
13   5 pm EDT 70 0.49
14   11 pm EDT 95 0.9025
16 19 Oct 5 am EDT 150 2.25
17   11 am EDT 150 2.25
18   5 pm EDT 140 1.96
19   11 pm EDT 135 1.8225
20 20 Oct 5 am EDT 130 1.69
21   11 am EDT 125 1.5625
22   5 pm EDT 130 1.69
23   11 pm EDT 130 1.69
24 21 Oct 5 am EDT 130 1.69
25   11 am EDT 125 1.5625
26   5 pm EDT 120 1.44
27   11 pm EDT 120 1.44
28 22 Oct 5 am EDT 110 1.21
29   11 am EDT 100 1.00
30   5 pm EDT 85 0.7225
31   11 pm EDT 85 0.7225
32 23 Oct 5 am EDT 85 0.7225
33   11 am EDT 85 0.7225
34   5 pm EDT 90 0.81
35   11 pm EDT 100 1.00
36 24 Oct 5 am EDT 110 1.21
37   11 am EDT 90 0.81
39   5 pm EDT 105 1.1025
40   11 pm EDT 110 1.21
41 25 Oct 5 am EDT 100 1.00
42   11 am EDT 90 0.81
43   5 pm EDT 75 EXT.
Total       37.06


Why does the article continue to say that Wilma's ACE is current as of yesterday's second advisory when it's been updated through today's?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 03:56, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I didn't even realize that there was such a reference in the article. --Holderca1 04:05, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Wilma is two thirds of the way to the season ACE championship...think she can do it?--L.E./12.144.5.2 20:13, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

That is hard to say, she has been moving slowly as a Cat 4/5 for the last couple days. She is forecast to weaken and accelerate, so hard to tell at this point. --Holderca1 20:15, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
There were a couple of errors relating to windspeeds from advisories 15 (18/10/2005 11pm EDT)and 17 (19/10/2005 11am EDT), now corrected. Tompw 11:15, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I am not sure what errors you were referring to, you changed 5 am EDT, Oct 19, when it should be 150 kts from adv 16 [2] --Holderca1 14:28, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
I've realised what happened... I was comparing a list of wind strength by advisory, and I forgot that #15 was an "extra". Hence my error. Btw, do we include wind speeds from Wilma when it's in extra-tropical storm status? Tompw 15:32, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Aren't advisories discontinued by the NHC when it becomes extratropical? --Holderca1 16:08, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
See my comment on Alpha's ACE calculations. Tompw 22:45, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Also... even it's extra-tropical, do we still include the wind speeds in the ACE? I know the NHC doesn't issue advisories, but someone else does (can't remember who). Tompw 15:19, 23 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I think with Wilma the 2005 ACE will be up there with 2004's tdwuhs

Though Katrina has the money crown and is duking it out with Stan over death toll honors,Wilma,besides the low pressure record and three-way peak wind speed tie,has grabbed the season ACE championship and is still going.How does she rank all-time for ACE for one hurricane?(I hope I am not tempting fate by assuming the titles I accord here will not be surpassed by season's end).--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 21:21, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Ivan had an ACE of close to 70 last year (there's a link from the ACE page), courtesy its long trek from Africa, so Wilma has a long way to go to beat last year's champ. I bet Ivan would be quite close to the record for the champ.

In advisory 43, the hurricane was just becoming extratropical and I think it should be counted in the ACE index. 

INITIAL      25/2100Z 41.7N  62.8W    75 KT ←not yet declared extratropical
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 44.5N  57.9W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Momoko 09:28, 26 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Record Pressure Fall[edit]

Guys, the World Record for most rapid intensification is supposedly Super Typhoon Forrest right? The pressure in Forrest fell 92 mb in 22-23 hours (975 mb at 23Z on Sept 21 to 883 mb at 11Z on the 22nd). Wilma went from a 980 mb tropical storm at 12Z on the 18th, to an 882 mb Category 5 hurricane at 12Z on the 19th. By my calculations, that is a pressure fall of 98 mb in roughly 24 hours. That sounds like a new world record to me.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 01:21, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I didn't work out the calculations myself but your data looks good to me. A few days ago in his blog, Steve Gregory of Weather Underground noted that someone informed him that an NHC scientist reported that Wilma indeed set a world record for quickest intensification, although he didn't have the data to support it. So yes, I agree with your assertion. The Great Zo 13:11, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
According to [3], Forrest dropped 100mb in 24 hours. We have TWO numbers for Wilma, one here and one on Wilma's page. Someone needs to harmonize the figures. --Golbez 14:00, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The JTWC post-season report says that Forrest fell 92 mb in 24 hours, not 100. I don't know where NOAA got the 876 minimum pressure. The minimum pressure reported by the JTWC was 883. See here: [4]. I posted a question on the Hurricane Wilma talk page asking which figure is right, because that could mean the difference between a broken record and a record nearly tied.
E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - my dropsonde 18:47, 21 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Correct value for Forrest is considered to be 876mbar, after re-analyzing of the data. --82.128.184.133 16:06, 23 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]


Hello everyone, I left on vacation to Washington DC when Wilma was still good ol' 98L.INVEST. When I woke up on October 19th, I turned to the Weather Channel to check up on Wilma...I choked on what I was drinking when I saw "882 mb". I can't believe Wilma did it! Completely astounding. -- RattleMan 03:08, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I went to bed when Wilma was certain to hit Cat 3 and the question was when it would reach Cat 4...woke up and saw that 8 AM advisory saying the record low pressure had been confirmed in Cat 5 Wilma.The rapid intensification of the evening was notable,but incredible how it continued overnight!Seems it will drop below Cat 4 for the last time within hours now,but its peak intensity will long be remembered.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 03:12, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
You never know what can happen in the Gulf, although pulling a Charley on the approach seems unlikely (water is pretty used up from Katrina and Rita). It could rapidly intensify on Sunday in the southern part of the Loop Current though... CrazyC83 05:16, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Wilma does appear to have set a new world record, however, we should wait until post-season analysis to be sure...maybe the pressure will be lowered below 880mb ;), although that may be unlikely. It will most likely not reintensify much due to extreme horizontal wind shear in the Gulf, but that is a good thing because of there was no wind shear this could have become a CAT5 again. Interesting though, the pressure is 946mb and the storm is only a minimal CAT3, this pressure is inidicative of a average-strong CAT4. Wilma has been very strange (her or the NHC and their measurements) with winds never above 175 mph even with a pressure of 882 mb (sounds like a wind cap conspiracy to me) and winds always FAR lower than the pressure would be indicative of. If the two were directly indirectly proportional then we would be seeing a 190 mph+ storm like Camille and Allen (but worse) at max intensity, and a 140 mph CAT4 right now over the Yucatan. Another strange note, Wilma was predicted by everyone to strenghten quite significantly before landfall on the Yucatan due to the completed eywall replacement, and yet the winds rose 5 mph and then steadily decreased. The NHC even mentioned the possibility of this hitting there as a CAT5 (there predicted wind speed was like 140 kts). Wilma has not followed their forecasts at all, with the wind speed far exceeding their top 10% of expectancy each time, and then far below their wind expectancy near landfall (because of dry air from land?). They didn't think it would linger over the Yucatan until the last minute either, and they NEVER expected it to overtake Gilbert in terms of pressure, but neither did we. The great kawa 17:50, 22 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

When I went to bed late on Tuesday, October 18, Wilma had just strengthened to a Category 2. When I woke up the next morning. It was a Category 5 with a pressure of 884!. I nearly collapsed. That rapid strengthening so close to land is startling. That gave Forrest, who was as far away from land as he could be, a run for his money!

Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 03:11, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Florida Landfall[edit]

Is it just me or is this thing strengthening rapidly again? Could we be in for a Charley 2.0, strengthening to a Category 4 by daybreak? I knew it was going to strengthen, but this much? Looking at the Doppler from Key West, it has been showing cells of over 110 knots... CrazyC83 02:28, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

No, not rapidly strengthening, just strengthening. The NHC says it should level off here.
Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 03:07, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
It's at bare Cat 3 now (115 mph) but will it get any stronger?...hoping my Broward County relatives are OK...Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 03:19, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Not only has it been strengthening, the eye has done an expansion of Frances proportions. It's now over 70 miles in diameter, a far cry from its Category 5 days. B.Wind 08:54, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Where did whoever wrote into the article that Wilma had already emerged over the Atlantic from West Palm Beach after 4 hours get that information?...no 11 AM advisory yet here...Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 14:58, 24 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

After Florida[edit]
Meanwhile...Wilma is back to 125 mph...tenacious!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 01:02, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Wilma back at Category 4 overnight...and while it could be extratropical, I think we'll be talking about a hurricane-strength storm for sure by the time Wilma reaches Atlantic Canada...this should remain a current event if Wilma is extratropical but still very strong and potentially damaging when it moves north...after all it could still be a Category 1 or possibly even Category 2 storm at that time...I'd be issuing the hurricane watches for Atlantic Canada right now. CrazyC83 01:44, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Check this out...there are two areas of clearness that look like two eyes...Wilma is looking back at Florida! On a sidenote, should we archive old (and dead) Wilma discussion into /Wilma now? -- RattleMan 02:47, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Once the storm dissipates, that should be done. CrazyC83 03:18, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

Holy crap! That wind field has gotten huge. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.

--Holderca1 12:22, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]

This storm has gotten insanely big. We could see heavy rainbands on the mid-Atlantic coast. This is incredible. Anybody know what the record is for the biggest wind field. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde
Super Typhoon Tip - stretched out 675 miles from the eye in all directions at peak intensity. CrazyC83 16:17, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
This storm is really booking across the Atlantic, too. Strange to think that its gone from moving about 2mph at the Yucatan to nearly 60mph in the open Atlantic. Any records on hand for the fastest moving hurricane to date? --RPIRED 19:55, 25 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 was moving at 70 mph at landfall. I think that's the record speed. -- 69.86.16.61 00:34, 26 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
Wilma and Nor'easter[edit]

What is the 411 on Wilma and the Nor'easter? Snow fall? Rain fall? Any damage? I know flight cancellations. How severe are this two together? tdwuhs

Wilma just made the nor'easter even worse. Similar to the Perfect Storm, a hurricane and a nor'easter merged. But unlike the Perfect Storm, it didn't stall, strengthen or have a fresh cold front to stir the pot. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde 14:07, 26 October 2005 (UTC)[reply]
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