Summary

DescriptionCovid-19 VOC-202012-01 odds ratio curves by country.png	English: The odds ratio (left y axis) of B.1.1.7 versus 'wild' variants is expected to grow exponentially; [0.076] means 7.9% growth per day. Dataset dates are publication dates. 'seq' for data from genomic sequnecing; 'SGTF' for PCR-based data (S-Gene Target Failure; less accurate than sequencing), and PCR for a PCR test specifically designed to detect the VOC (Switzerland only). To convert the log slope ${\displaystyle s}$ to ratios of reproduction numbers: ${\displaystyle R_{\mathrm {VOC} }/R_{\mathrm {other} }=\exp(s\,T_{g})}$ with ${\displaystyle T_{g}}$ the generation interval (usually assumed 4–6 days). The daily growth factor is ${\displaystyle \exp(s\cdot (1~\mathrm {d} ))}$. Data sources: DK[1], NL[2][3][4][5], PT[6], CH[7], UK[8], IE[9][10][11]. The logarithmic slopes as indicated are not based on a rigorous uncertainty analysis. Code to generate these graphs: Github/han-kwang. Note: this graph will be updated with new data. References here will be kept up to date. References in figure captions may be outdated.
Date	2021-01-31, last updated 2021-02-14
Source	Own work
Author	Hankwang

References

1. ↑ Genomic overview of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark. www.covid19genomics.dk Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium (2021-01-30). Archived from the original on 2021-12-20. Retrieved on 1 February 2021.
2. ↑ RIVM (2021-01-16). Advies deel 1 n.a.v. 96e OMT. rijksoverheid.nl.
3. ↑ van Dissel, Jaap (2021-01-20). COVID-19 25e Tweede Kamer briefing 20 jan 2021. tweedekamer.nl. Retrieved on 1 February 2021.
4. ↑ RIVM (2021-01-31). Advies deel 1 n.a.v. 98e OMT. rijksoverheid.nl.
5. ↑ Ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport (2021-02-07). Advies n.a.v. 99e OMT, deel 2 (in nl-NL). www.rijksoverheid.nl. Retrieved on 2021-02-09.
6. ↑ Borges, Vítor (2021-01-19; updated 2021-02-11). Tracking SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) dissemination in Portugal: insights from nationwide RT-PCR Spike gene drop out data. virological.org. Retrieved on 14 February 2021. This includes updates at the bottom of the page.
7. ↑ Genomische Charakterisierung. sciencetaskforce.ch. Retrieved on 14 February 2021.
8. ↑ European center for disease prevention and Control (ECDC). Risk related to the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the EU/EEA – first update. ecdc.europa.eu. Retrieved on 6 February 2021.
9. ↑ Department of Health (2021-01-21). NPHET COVID Update 21st January 2021. Retrieved on 2021-02-06.
10. ↑ Government of Ireland. Department of Health. 28 January 2021. (2021-01-28). Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) – 28 January 2021. Retrieved on 2021-02-06.
11. ↑ Tony Holchan, Chair of the COVID-19 National Public Health Emergency Team (2021-02-04). Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - 4 February 2021. www.gov.ie. Retrieved on 2021-02-14.

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