Understanding the charts

The graphic includes four charts from the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2016-2026.^[1] Starting in the upper left hand corner and working clockwise:

• Total revenues fell and outlays increased significantly 2009-2013 due to the Great Recession. As the economy recovered, both expense and revenue returned to approximately their historical averages as % GDP by 2014.
• The U.S. has run budget deficits in each year since 1970 except 1998-2001. The deficit fell each year from 2010-2015, returning to its historical average by 2014 relative to the size of the economy.
• The aging of the country is expected to increase spending on mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare, relative to the size of the economy, as time goes on. Spending on discretionary categories (defense, non-defense) is expected to fall relative to the size of the economy.
• Federal debt held by the public is expected to rise, driven by mandatory programs and interest.

References

Summary

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