Three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal

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Three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal
"Three-Phase Proposal for a Durable Peace in the Middle East"
U.S. president Joe Biden announces Israel's three-phase ceasefire proposal.
Context
Drafted5 May 2024; 29 days ago (2024-05-05)
Mediators
Parties

The three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal is a proposed armistice to end the Israel–Hamas war and reconstruct the Gaza Strip. The deal was drafted by mediators from Egypt and Qatar on May 5, and endorsed by Hamas on May 6. On May 31, US President Joe Biden presented the deal as an Israeli proposal. The May 5 and May 31 proposals are nearly identical.[1][2] The proposal consists of three phases, involving the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for a release of some Palestinian prisoners and leading to a permanent cessation of hostilities. The May 31 proposal was welcomed by Hamas, Israeli opposition leaders as well as Canada, France, Germany, UK and the EU.

The proposal consisted of three stages, each with a length of 42 days. Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages in the first stage who met certain humanitarian criteria; if there were not enough living hostages that met this criteria, Hamas would release deceased hostages. The humanitarian criteria were the release of all remaining women and children, wounded and elderly hostages. In exchange, Israel would release 30-50 Palestinians (starting with children and women) for every Israeli released. During the first stage, Israel would have to allow "sufficient" quantities of humanitarian aid, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes and start to make a phased withdrawal from Gaza.[3] During the temporary ceasefire, talks would begin between both parties for a more permanent cessation of hostilities. In the second stage, Israel would accept a permanent ceasefire and Hamas would then release the remaining living male hostages, both civilians and soldiers, for an exchange of Palestinian prisoners.[3] In the third stage, the remains of deceased Israeli hostages would be released. Under the May 5 proposal Israel would commit to lifting the blockade on the Gaza Strip,[4][3] but this commitment is not present in the May 31 proposal.[2]

Negotiations

Negotiations for a ceasefire had been on-going[when?], but neither side could come to an agreement. On May 2, Israel offered a ceasefire proposal; Hamas said it disagreed with three points in that proposal.[5] On May 4 and May 5, talks were hosted in Cairo, which were attended by Egyptians, Qataris, and a US delegation led by CIA director William Burns. Hamas also sent a delegation; the Americans don't directly talk to Hamas, but communicate their proposals through intermediaries.[6] Benjamin Netanyahu decided to not send an Israeli delegation.[5]

Previous negotiation had failed because Hamas sought a permanent end to the war so it can remain in power in Gaza, while Israel would only agree to a temporary ceasefire. The Egyptians and Qataris aimed to bridge this divide by separating the ceasefire into three phases, with negotiations for a "sustainable calm" happening only in the second phase.[6] The wording "sustainable calm" was crafted by the Americans so that Israel would not have to commit to a permanent ceasefire upfront.[6] The United States official hoped that the first 42 ceasefire would lead to something "more enduring".[6]

On May 6, John Kirby, an advisor to Joe Biden, confirmed that CIA Director William Burns had played a key role in the negotiations that brought about the proposal.[6][7]

On May 21, CNN reported that Egyptian intelligence may have single-handedly altered the terms. The change, which seemed to have surprised both the American and Qatari negotiators, is attributed to Ahmed Abdel Khalek, a senior deputy to the chief of Egyptian intelligence Abbas Kamel. Kamel had been one the leaders of the negotiation for Egypt.[8]

Details of the March 5 proposal

The proposal is divided into three stages, each 42 days (six weeks) long. Its aims are the release of all Israeli captives – whether civilian or military, alive or deceased; release of some number of Palestinian prisoners; return of "sustainable calm"; and the end of Israeli occupation and siege of the Gaza Strip.

First stage

In this stage, Hamas would release 33 Israeli captives. It would start with releasing all living Israeli children (under 19), all living civilian women, all living elderly (over age 50) Israelis, and all living female Israeli soldiers.[9] In return, Israel would release 30 Palestinian children and women for every Israeli civilian released.[10] If the total number of alive children, women, elderly and female soldiers is less than 33, then it would make up for that difference by releasing deceased bodies of Israelis.[9]

Israel would have to allow the entry of "sufficient" quantities of humanitarian aid: 600 trucks per day, of which 300 are for the north.[10] Included in this are 50 fuel trucks "including the fuel necessary for operating the power plant, trade, and equipment needed for rubble removal, rehabilitation and operation of hospitals, health centres and bakeries in all areas of the Gaza Strip".[10]

Simultaneous to the captive exchanges, displaced unarmed[9] Palestinians shall be able to return to their homes in Gaza, and Israel would gradually withdraw from some (but not all) parts of the Gaza Strip.[10] Israel would not conduct military flights over for 10-12 hours per day.[3]

Second stage

In the second state, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis, including both civilians and soldiers.[3] In return, Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinians prisoners. The prisoner exchanges would be conditioned on both parties agreeing to and announcing a "sustainable calm" and the withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip.[3]

Third stage

In this stage, Hamas would release all the remains of deceased Israeli captives, in exchange for Israel releasing the remains of deceased Palestinian bodies that it holds.[9] Israel would end the Blockade of the Gaza Strip and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.[3]

Supervision and guarantors

Under the proposal, activities in the Gaza Strip would be supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.[9]

The proposal and its provisions would be guaranteed by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, and the United Nations. Hamas stated that they received promises that both Egypt and Biden would guarantee the implementation of the deal.[6]

Reactions to March 5 proposal

After Hamas's acceptance of the proposal, crowds gathered to celebrate in Rafah, Gaza Strip.[11][12] On the Palestinian side the proposal was supported by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.[13] Ordinary Gazans expressed support for the proposal.[14]

In Israel, the families of Israeli captives held by Hamas called on the US to pressure Netanyahu into accepting the proposal.[15] Protests broke out in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.[15] Protestors blocked the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv, demanding the government reach a deal to secure the release of Israeli captives.[16]

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said the proposal was "far from meeting Israel's demands", but would send a delegation to Cairo to negotiate.[17]

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Hamas's acceptance of the proposal and hoped Israel will do the same.[18] French president Emmanuel Macron urged Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.[19] UAE's Foreign Minister Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan supported Egyptian-Qatari mediations and hoped the proposal would result in ending both the war and the suffering of Palestinians.[20]

May 31: Biden presents a proposal

On 31 May 2024, U.S. president Joe Biden announced the proposal in the State Dining Room of the White House, endorsing the plan. The U.S. shared the plan with Hamas through Qatar.[21] According to U.S. officials, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unwilling to support a ceasefire and the release of hostages out of concerns that he will lose his premiership. Hamas expressed interest in operating within a proposal that includes a withdrawal of Israeli forces, a permanent truce, the return of Palestinians, and a prisoner exchange.[22] U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken spoke with his counterparts in Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to garner support for the proposal.[23] On 1 June, Netanyahu stated the war would not end until Hamas is defeated militarily and operationally[24] and a permanent ceasefire as a "nonstarter".[25] The United States, Egypt, and Qatar issued a joint statement that day urging Israel and Hamas to finalize an agreement.[26] According to The Wall Street Journal, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's intentions to secure the longevity of the organization conflict with Israel's intentions to defeat Hamas.[27] United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated Israel would agree to the proposal if Hamas accepts the deal.[28]

A Biden administration official said that Biden's proposal was "almost identical" to Hamas's own proposals.[1] According to Al-Jazeera's analysis Biden's May 31 proposal was almost identical to the May 5 Egyptian-Qatari proposal that Hamas had accepted.[29] The main difference between the two appeared to be that the May 5 proposal called for lifting the blockade of the Gaza Strip, while the May 31 proposal did not.[2] Israel had rejected the May 5 proposal.[29] According to Al-Majalla magazine, the difference between the May 5 and May 31 proposal was a change in circumstances: after May 5, Hamas was reported to have captured more Israeli soldiers during a battle in Jabaliya.[30]

Responses to May 31 proposal

Hamas

Hamas welcomed Biden's May 31 proposal,[29] stating "The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas views positively what was included in US President Joe Biden’s speech today."[2]

Israel

Minister of national security Itamar Ben-Gvir and minister of finance Bezalel Smotrich[31] threatened to resign if Israel agreed to the proposal prior to the destruction of Hamas.[22] Opposition leader Yair Lapid offered to support the government if the proposal was signed.[31] Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv the following day to express support of the deal and criticism towards Netanyahu.[23]

United States

The proposal was co-signed by pro-Israel representatives Brad Schneider and Steny Hoyer and Israeli-critical senator Peter Welch and representative Greg Casar. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer supported the deal. The proposal was opposed by senator Lindsey Graham, arguing that defeating Hamas was non-negotiable. Representative Mike Waltz argued that Hamas would be strengthened by continued discussions with Israel. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene referred to the plan as "Hamas First".[32]

International

The proposal was endorsed by French president Emmanuel Macron, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and diplomats from the United Kingdom and Germany.[23]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Biden announces new cease-fire plan for Gaza". Washington Post.
  2. ^ a b c d "Hamas views Israel ceasefire proposal 'positively', group says after Biden's speech". Middle East Eye. 31 May 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g "Here's what's on the table for Israel and Hamas in the latest cease-fire plan". AP News. 2024-05-02. Retrieved 2024-05-10.
  4. ^ Mednick, Sam (2024-05-06). "Hamas accepts Gaza cease-fire; Israel says it will continue talks but presses on with Rafah attacks". AP News. Retrieved 2024-05-10.
  5. ^ a b Greene, Richard Allen (2024-03-03). "Israel not sending delegation to Cairo for Gaza talks, Israeli official says". CNN. Retrieved 2024-05-10.
  6. ^ a b c d e f Keating, Joshua (2024-05-08). "Israel and Hamas aren't that far apart in ceasefire talks. A deal will still be tough". Vox. Retrieved 2024-05-10.
  7. ^ House, The White (2024-05-06). "Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby". The White House. Retrieved 2024-05-11. I think it's safe to conclude that that response came as a result or at the end of these continued discussions that Director Burns was part of.
  8. ^ Diamond, Alex Marquardt, Jeremy (2024-05-21). "Sources say they were 'duped' by Egypt changing ceasefire terms for Hamas | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2024-05-22.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  9. ^ a b c d e "Text of the Gaza ceasefire proposal approved by Hamas". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2024-05-10.
  10. ^ a b c d "What's in the three-phase ceasefire deal Hamas backs, but Israel does not?". Reuters. May 7, 2024.
  11. ^ "Celebrations erupt in Rafah as Hamas accepts ceasefire proposal for Gaza | Watch News Videos Online". Global News. Retrieved 2024-05-11.
  12. ^ "Palestinians celebrate as Hamas accepts proposed cease-fire for Gaza Strip". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 2024-05-11.
  13. ^ "Reaction to Hamas saying it accepted Gaza ceasefire proposal".
  14. ^ admin (2024-05-07). "'Sleeping without Fear' - Gazans React to Hamas' Acceptance of Ceasefire Proposal". Palestine Chronicle. Retrieved 2024-05-11.
  15. ^ a b "Hostage families urge US, other countries to press Israel to reach deal with Hamas". 7 May 2024.
  16. ^ "Protesters briefly block Tel Aviv highway to demand deal freeing hostages in Gaza".
  17. ^ "Bowen: Netanyahu knows Hamas survival amounts to his own defeat". 2024-05-06. Retrieved 2024-05-11.
  18. ^ "Turkey's Erdogan welcomes Hamas accepting ceasefire, hopes Israel will do the same".
  19. ^ Presse, AFP-Agence France. "Macron Urges Netanyahu To Reach Truce Deal With Hamas: France". www.barrons.com. Retrieved 2024-05-11.
  20. ^ "UAE backs Qatari-Egyptian mediation for Gaza cease-fire". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 2024-05-11.
  21. ^ Ramaswamy, Swapna (31 May 2024). "Israel has offered a plan for 6 week Gaza cease-fire and hostage release, Biden says". USA Today. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  22. ^ a b Kanno-Youngs, Zolan; Sanger, David (31 May 2024). "Biden Calls for End to Gaza War, Endorsing Israeli Cease-Fire Proposal". The New York Times. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  23. ^ a b c Soroka, Lior; Morris, Loveday; Bisset, Victoria; Pietsch, Bryan (1 June 2024). "Pressure builds on Netanyahu to advance Gaza cease-fire deal". The Washington Post. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  24. ^ Boxerman, Aaron (1 June 2024). "After Biden's Push for Truce, Netanyahu Calls Israel's War Plans Unchanged". The New York Times. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  25. ^ Mednick, Sam; Shurafa, Wafaa (1 June 2024). "Israeli leader Netanyahu faces growing pressure at home after Biden's Gaza proposal". Associated Press. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  26. ^ "Families of hostages call for Israel and Hamas to accept cease-fire proposal pushed by Biden". CBS News. 1 June 2024. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  27. ^ Walker, Marcus; Said, Summer; Keller-Lynn, Carrie (1 June 2024). "Why Biden's Cease-Fire Push in Gaza Faces Tough Obstacles". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  28. ^ Debusmann, Bernd (2 June 2024). "US expects Israel will accept Gaza ceasefire plan if Hamas does". BBC News. Retrieved 2 June 2024.
  29. ^ a b c "Biden says Israel has agreed to 'enduring' Gaza ceasefire proposal". Al Jazeera. 31 May 2024.
  30. ^ HAMIDI, Ibrahim (June 1, 2024). "Biden reveals 'Israeli' ceasefire plan, putting the ball in Netanyahu's court". en.majalla.com.
  31. ^ a b Lukiv, Jaroslav (1 June 2024). "Israeli ministers threaten to quit over ceasefire plan". BBC News. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  32. ^ Solender, Andrew (31 May 2024). "Gaza ceasefire plan draws rare bipartisan support in Congress". Axios. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
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